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Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

882 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Prediction Market Kalshi to Expand Onchain Presence

Prediction Market Kalshi to Expand Onchain Presence

The post Prediction Market Kalshi to Expand Onchain Presence appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The controversial company has unveiled its new head of crypto, influencer John Wang. Prediction market Kalshi revealed its new head of crypto today, a trading and crypto influencer known as John Wang, who is tasked with “bringing new crypto markets to life, growing Kalshi’s builder ecosystem, and leading the push onchain,” according to an article Wang published on X. Prediction markets have been a hot sector in crypto over the last few months, with Wang leading the push on social media and spending the last few weeks bullposting prediction markets. In a particularly viral tweet on Aug. 18, he said, “Mark my words: prediction markets will be 10x bigger than memecoins.” Kalshi also recently expanded its sports betting markets through a new partnership with Robinhood. The activation enables National Football League (NFL) and National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) American football betting markets on Robinhood, facilitated by Kalshi. Market leader Polymarket, on the other hand, announced a partnership with Elon Musk’s X in June, making the decentralized prediction market the official partner of X. Controversial Past Polymarket has been the crypto-native favorite among prediction markets since activity on the platform exploded leading up to the 2024 presidential election. It’s gearing up for an even bigger 2025, as Polymarket plots a return to the United States after acquiring a compliant platform through a $112 million deal in July. Part of the favoritism also lies in crypto-natives’ general disdain for Kalshi and some of the company’s previous tactics. Niko Kampouris, a social media specialist at Uniswap, called out Kalshi after the news broke today, saying, “Sorry, but Kalshi lost all respect after their coordinated polymarket propaganda tour during the election cycle. They tried destroying something that was built by one of our own. Don’t really care who they hire to help save face.…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/26

Buterin flags yield gap in prediction markets as debate over their role intensifies

Buterin flags yield gap in prediction markets as debate over their role intensifies

The post Buterin flags yield gap in prediction markets as debate over their role intensifies appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin weighed in on the growing debate over prediction markets, warning that the absence of interest-bearing mechanisms makes them unappealing for risk-averse traders. In a post on Farcaster, Buterin said the lack of yield forces participants to sacrifice guaranteed returns elsewhere, such as the 4% annual yield available on dollars, just to take part. He suggested that once markets solve the interest gap, “lots of hedging use cases” could emerge, driving greater volumes and adoption. Critics see structural flaws Buterin’s comments came as online discussion flared over the risks and potential of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. The exchange was sparked by an essay from former quant trader Agustin Lebron, who argued that prediction markets are structurally flawed and could destabilize society by encouraging reflexive feedback loops between bets and real-world outcomes. Lebron contended that prediction markets lack the diverse mix of hedgers, speculators, and institutional investors that underpin traditional financial markets. He argued that without hedgers transferring risk, prediction markets devolve into contests between sharp traders and retail gamblers, leaving little room for sustainable liquidity. Supporters push back His critique drew a detailed rebuttal from pseudonymous trader @TomJrSr, who disclosed financial interests in the sector. In a lengthy response, he argued that Lebron’s view underestimates the long-term potential for prediction markets to provide valuable hedging tools for businesses, industries, and individuals exposed to real-world risks. He wrote: “Airlines face hurricanes, utilities face unpredictable temperatures, and energy firms face shifting OPEC quotas.” He further suggested that prediction markets could offer a cheaper and more direct way to hedge against such events than existing financial instruments. With Buterin highlighting missing yield and both sides of the debate staking out starkly different positions, prediction markets appear caught between two futures: one as a niche form of speculative entertainment, the…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/26

Why Vitalik Believes Interest Could Transform Prediction Markets

Why Vitalik Believes Interest Could Transform Prediction Markets

The post Why Vitalik Believes Interest Could Transform Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction markets need yield integration to attract hedging and mainstream adoption. Ethereum analysts eye $7,500–$15,650 targets as Fibonacci levels fuel optimism. Institutional demand and network strength bolster ETH’s path toward $10,000 cycle highs. Ethereum is once again at the center of intense debate, as its founder raises questions about the future of prediction markets while analysts chart ambitious price targets. The discussion underscores how both structural improvements in financial products and technical market momentum could define Ethereum’s trajectory in the coming cycle. Prediction Markets and Hedging Potential Vitalik Buterin has highlighted a major limitation of today’s prediction markets. He noted that because they don’t offer any yield, they are unattractive for serious hedging. With U.S. dollars earning nearly 4% annually, traders are unwilling to lock up capital in products that yield nothing.  Consequently, prediction markets have struggled to expand into mainstream risk management. However, once developers solve this gap, significant transaction volume could follow.  Related: Ethereum Leads a Market-Wide Rally After Powell’s “Dovish” Jackson Hole Speech Moreover, the creation of interest-enabled platforms would allow institutions and retail users alike to hedge economic risks far more effectively. This shift could unlock demand from new participants, thereby accelerating growth across the decentralized finance ecosystem. Vitalik：若预测市场提供利息将推动交易量增长，涌现大量对冲用例 关于预测市场的好坏之争，以太坊创始人 Vitalik 表示，“目前主流的预测市场大多不提供利息，这使得它们在对冲方面非常没有吸引力，因为参与其中就意味着要牺牲美元 4%… pic.twitter.com/W3PnImM2Sw — PANews (@PANewsCN) August 25, 2025 Price Momentum and Technical Outlook Meanwhile, Ethereum’s price performance continues to spark optimism. ETH is currently valued at $4,608.22 after a recent 3.39% daily decline. Despite short-term volatility, the asset has still gained 8.25% over the past week. Analysts argue that this rally reflects Ethereum’s break above long-term resistance zones.  Mags, a well-followed market analyst, pointed out that in the previous cycle, ETH delivered a 211% rally after breaching its all-time high. Applying similar Fibonacci extension levels, he projects a potential peak near $15,650.  Even if…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/25

Buterin Spotlights Missed Opportunities in Prediction Markets

Buterin Spotlights Missed Opportunities in Prediction Markets

The post Buterin Spotlights Missed Opportunities in Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Ethereum’s co-founder, Vitalik Buterin, has brought attention to a significant obstacle facing prediction markets: the lack of interest payments. In a recent communication on Farcaster, Buterin emphasized that participants in these markets miss a lucrative annual yield of approximately 4% from dollar-based assets. Continue Reading:Buterin Spotlights Missed Opportunities in Prediction Markets Source: https://en.bitcoinhaber.net/buterin-spotlights-missed-opportunities-in-prediction-markets

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/25

Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts

Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts

The post Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction Markets’ Crucial Flaw: Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts Skip to content Home Crypto News Prediction Markets’ Crucial Flaw: Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts Source: https://bitcoinworld.co.in/prediction-markets-interest-payouts/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/25

Prediction Markets’ Crucial Flaw: Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts

Prediction Markets’ Crucial Flaw: Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts

BitcoinWorld Prediction Markets’ Crucial Flaw: Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently dropped a significant insight that has the crypto community buzzing. He argues that current prediction markets are fundamentally flawed when it comes to effective hedging, primarily because most platforms don’t offer interest payouts. This isn’t just a minor oversight; it’s a crucial missing piece that impacts their utility and broader adoption, according to Buterin’s recent Farcaster post, as The Block reported. What’s Missing from Today’s Prediction Markets? Imagine you have money, and you want to use it to bet on future events, perhaps to offset potential losses elsewhere – this is hedging. However, when you put your funds into most leading prediction markets, that money simply sits there. Buterin points out a key issue: users forgo a secure 4% annual yield, which is readily available on dollar-based assets. This “opportunity cost” means that by participating in a prediction market, you’re essentially losing out on potential earnings you could get elsewhere. It’s like choosing to keep your money under a mattress instead of in a savings account that pays interest. Opportunity Cost: Users lose out on potential passive income. Reduced Incentive: Less attractive for long-term hedging strategies. Inefficient Capital: Funds are not actively earning, making the platform less appealing. Why are Interest Payouts Crucial for Effective Hedging in Prediction Markets? Hedging is all about managing risk. If you’re using a prediction market to hedge against a future event, you want your capital to be as efficient as possible. Without interest payouts, the act of hedging becomes less appealing. For instance, if you’re betting against a certain outcome to protect another investment, your capital is tied up without earning anything. This makes the overall strategy less profitable and less compelling compared to traditional financial instruments that often provide some form of yield. Buterin believes that resolving this issue would unlock a wave of broader hedging scenarios, leading to significantly greater trading volumes across these platforms. Are Current Prediction Markets Falling Short? The Polymarket Example Buterin’s observations aren’t just theoretical; they align with recent market trends. For example, Polymarket, one of the leading platforms, saw its July volume decline to $1.06 billion from $1.16 billion in June. While this isn’t solely attributable to the lack of interest payouts, it highlights a potential struggle in sustaining engagement and growth. If users perceive a better return on their capital elsewhere, they will naturally gravitate towards those options. The current design of many prediction markets inadvertently creates a barrier for serious hedgers and long-term participants. Unlocking Revolutionary Potential: What If Prediction Markets Evolved? Imagine a future where prediction markets integrate interest-earning mechanisms. This transformative change could revolutionize how people approach risk management and speculation. Users could participate in markets, hedge their positions, and still earn a yield on their staked capital. This dual benefit would dramatically increase the attractiveness of these platforms, drawing in a wider audience and fostering more sophisticated trading strategies. The potential for increased trading volumes and more robust market participation is immense, moving prediction markets closer to becoming a truly powerful financial tool. In essence, Vitalik Buterin’s critique offers a vital roadmap for the evolution of prediction markets. By addressing the fundamental economic incentive of interest payouts, these platforms can transcend their current limitations and unlock a future where they serve as truly effective and appealing tools for risk management and speculation. This isn’t just about adding a feature; it’s about fundamentally rethinking their design to align with user expectations and financial realities, ultimately driving their growth and utility in the decentralized finance ecosystem. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q1: What is the main issue Vitalik Buterin raised about prediction markets? A1: Vitalik Buterin argued that most leading prediction markets are poorly designed for hedging because they fail to offer interest payouts on users’ staked capital, leading to an opportunity cost. Q2: Why is the lack of interest payouts a problem for hedging? A2: When users participate in prediction markets, they forgo a secure annual yield (e.g., 4% on dollar-based assets). This makes hedging less appealing as their capital is tied up without earning any passive income, making the strategy less efficient. Q3: How would interest payouts benefit prediction markets? A3: Integrating interest payouts would make prediction markets more attractive for hedging and speculation. It would reduce the opportunity cost for users, likely driving greater trading volumes, fostering broader hedging scenarios, and increasing overall platform engagement. Q4: Did Buterin’s remarks coincide with any market trends? A4: Yes, his remarks coincided with Polymarket’s July volume declining to $1.06 billion from $1.16 billion in June, suggesting that current market designs might be struggling to retain user capital and engagement. Q5: What is “opportunity cost” in this context? A5: Opportunity cost refers to the potential benefit that a person misses out on when choosing one alternative over another. In this case, it’s the 4% annual yield users could earn on dollar-based assets but forgo by putting their money into a prediction market without interest. Q6: What does “hedging” mean in the context of prediction markets? A6: Hedging means making an investment to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in an asset. In prediction markets, it would involve taking a position to offset potential losses from another investment or future event. Share this insightful analysis! If you found Vitalik Buterin’s perspective on prediction markets and the importance of interest payouts as compelling as we did, spread the word. Share this article with your network and spark a conversation about the future of decentralized finance and risk management! To learn more about the latest crypto market trends, explore our article on key developments shaping Ethereum price action. This post Prediction Markets’ Crucial Flaw: Why Vitalik Buterin Demands Interest Payouts first appeared on BitcoinWorld and is written by Editorial Team

Author: Coinstats

2025/08/25

Coinbase Widens In-App DEX Trading in Bid to Become ‘Everything Exchange’

Coinbase Widens In-App DEX Trading in Bid to Become ‘Everything Exchange’

The post Coinbase Widens In-App DEX Trading in Bid to Become ‘Everything Exchange’ appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Coinbase Global has broadened access to its in-app decentralized-exchange trading, allowing customers to buy and sell any token issued on Base, the company’s Ethereum layer-2 network Coinbase Global has broadened access to its in-app decentralized-exchange trading, allowing customers to buy and sell any token issued on Base, the company’s Ethereum layer-2 network. Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong said the goal is to offer “everything you want to trade,” while product head Max Branzburg described the plan as turning Coinbase into an “Everything Exchange.” The feature, introduced about two weeks ago with roughly 1% of users, has already been activated by around 5% of the platform’s customer base. Branzburg added that the number of assets users have traded through the in-app DEX now surpasses the total tokens the company has listed on its centralized exchange in the past 13 years. Support already includes Zora creator coins, and executives signaled that prediction-market and real-world-asset tokens could follow as Base adoption grows. This is an AI-generated article powered by DeepNewz, curated by The Defiant. For more information, including article sources, visit DeepNewz. Source: https://thedefiant.io/news/defi/coinbase-widens-app-dex-trading-bid-to-everything-exchange-011da35f

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/24

Truth Network Powers the Infrastructure for a New Generation of Prediction Markets with Over 19,000 Nodes

Truth Network Powers the Infrastructure for a New Generation of Prediction Markets with Over 19,000 Nodes

The post Truth Network Powers the Infrastructure for a New Generation of Prediction Markets with Over 19,000 Nodes appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Advertisement &nbsp &nbsp Disclaimer: The below article is sponsored, and the views in it do not represent those of ZyCrypto. Readers should conduct independent research before taking any actions related to the project mentioned in this piece. This article should not be regarded as investment advice. A major milestone in the development and operational scale of Truth Network, a decentralized infrastructure protocol that supports worldwide prediction markets, was reached today with the announcement that it has surpassed 19,000 node allocations. The development shows that the deployment of decentralized forecasting infrastructure is still gaining traction. Through independently maintained nodes, Truth Network, which is intended to act as a fundamental layer for market-based prediction systems, allows distributed confirmation of real-world outcomes. These nodes are essential to maintaining network consensus, tamper resistance, and data integrity. Through a combination of ecosystem activations, public sales, and institutional collaborations, node involvement has increased. Of particular note are allocations made possible by BlockchainFactory.io, a tool that aids in the early distribution and onboarding of infrastructure participants. The rise in node count coincides with the acceleration of general interest in prediction markets. The Economist recently said that the ideal situation for the industry would be “a world where every uncertain future can be priced, hedged, and insured against,” indicating a growing understanding of prediction markets as instruments for economic insight and information gathering. The validator-based architecture of Truth Network lays the foundation for upcoming applications in decentralized intelligence and decision-making by offering a distributed way to confirm results and manage value transfer on-chain. Advertisement &nbsp About Truth Network Truth Network is a decentralized infrastructure protocol designed to power open and transparent prediction markets. By combining distributed node validation, real-time data processing, and incentive aligned token mechanics, it enables communities to create, participate in, and govern trustless…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/20

Robinhood (HOOD) Enters Betting Arena With NFL, College Football Prediction Markets

Robinhood (HOOD) Enters Betting Arena With NFL, College Football Prediction Markets

The post Robinhood (HOOD) Enters Betting Arena With NFL, College Football Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Robinhood (HOOD) has partnered with Kalshi, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated and blockchain-based prediction market, to let users trade on the outcomes of NFL and college football games. The betting market will be available through Robinhood’s Prediction Markets Hub, available across the U.S. through Kalshi, the popular trading platform said in a blog post on Wednesday. “Customers can now trade on the outcomes of the most popular pro and college football games, including all regular season pro matchups, and all college Power 4 schools and independents,” according to the post. Robinhood is positioning the move as an alternative to traditional betting platforms. Rather than routing through sportsbooks, these trades are executed on Kalshi’s federally regulated exchange and treated like commodities, not wagers. “Unlike sports betting, where the firm sets a line, event contracts leverage the power and rigor of financial market structure and are offered in a marketplace where buyers and sellers interact to set the price,” the blog post said. With this move Robinhood could be coming after some of the traditional betting platforms, such as DraftKings (DKNG) and Fanduel parent Flutter Entertainment (FLUT). Regulated sports betting The launch marks Robinhood’s latest move into prediction markets after previously signaling interest in the space. In March, the company rolled out a broader “Prediction Markets Hub” available through CFTC-regulated exchange Kalshi, following the popularity of crypto-native platforms like Polymarket, where users bet on outcomes ranging from elections to inflation rates using USDC. While Polymarket operated in a regulatory gray zone in the U.S., it recently said it is preparing an official return to the U.S. through the acquisition of QCX, a regulated derivatives exchange, following a federal investigation into Polymarket’s operations that was dropped. However, Robinhood sidestepped those regulatory concerns by partnering with Kalshi, which is an exchange already licensed…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/20

Robinhood Expands Sports Betting by Launching Football Prediction Markets

Robinhood Expands Sports Betting by Launching Football Prediction Markets

The post Robinhood Expands Sports Betting by Launching Football Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Robinhood has expanded its prediction markets to include pro and college football. The move highlights the company’s aggressive strategy to grow its “predictions hub” into major new categories like sports. The new offering will become available to customers in the coming days, starting with contracts for the season’s first two weeks. A Growing Prediction Markets Hub Robinhood announced today the launch of pro and college football prediction markets within the Robinhood app. The new feature allows customers to trade on the outcomes of major games, including all professional regular season matchups and games involving Power 4 and independent college football teams. “Football is far and away the most popular sport in America. Adding pro and college football to our prediction markets hub is a no-brainer for us as we aim to make Robinhood a one-stop shop for all your investing and trading needs,” said JB Mackenzie, VP & GM of Futures and International at Robinhood, in a press release.  Robinhood Derivatives, LLC will offer these new contracts through KalshiEX LLC, a federally regulated exchange. Robinhood will soon launch pro and college football Prediction Markets directly within the Robinhood app, per $HOOD release; PMs will include all NFL and NCAA Power 4 conference regular season games; launch comes days after Kalshi announces its own expanded football PM offerings — Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) August 19, 2025 The announcement expands on Robinhood’s existing prediction market offerings, which have already seen over 2 billion contracts traded. Unlike traditional sports betting, these are structured as financial markets where buyers and sellers set the prices, and users can manage their positions throughout a game. The new offerings will become fully available in the coming days. Robinhood will offer contracts for the first two weeks of the professional and college seasons at launch. The company plans to…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/20

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