ExchangeDEX+
Buy CryptoMarketsSpotFuturesGOLDEarnEvent Center
More
ICP Zero-Fee Gala

Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

884 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
‘South Park’ Takes On Prediction Markets—And Traders Are Already Betting On It

‘South Park’ Takes On Prediction Markets—And Traders Are Already Betting On It

The post ‘South Park’ Takes On Prediction Markets—And Traders Are Already Betting On It appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. In brief South Park’s next episode, “Conflict of Interest,” will center on a prediction market app taking over the kids’ school. Real prediction markets like Myriad and Polymarket are letting users bet on which words or topics will appear in the episode, which is set to air tonight. The current season of South Park has stirred controversy over its depiction of figures like Charlie Kirk and President Donald Trump. In the midst of a headline-grabbing season that’s taken aim at all manner of timely and controversial subjects, South Park has found its latest target: prediction markets.  The latest episode of the hit animated series, due to air Wednesday night, will center on prediction markets and their incessant popularity among young people, Comedy Central announced earlier today.  The episode, titled “Conflict of Interest,” will specifically center on a rift that emerges between characters Cartman and Kyle when a popular prediction market app takes over their school.  Already, and perhaps proving the point of the show’s creators, crypto-backed prediction markets have jumped on the opportunity to financialize the finer points of tonight’s episode.  One Myriad market currently has odds at 31.7% that the episode will mention an existing prediction market—either Myriad itself, Polymarket, or Kalshi—by name. Roughly $11,400 has been wagered on the bet as of this writing. (Disclaimer: Myriad is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, DASTAN.) On Polymarket, users are wagering on the likelihood that other certain words are mentioned in the show tonight, including “predict” or “prediction” 10-plus times (71% odds), “Broncos” (49% odds), “Trump” three-plus times (45% odds) and “dildo” (55% odds). Despite the connectivity between prediction markets and cryptocurrency—which fuels the backend of platforms like Polymarket and Myriad)—odds of South Park mentioning “crypto” or “Bitcoin” tonight currently stand at only 31%. The market has so far…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/25

Melee Raises $3.5M to Launch ‘Viral Prediction Markets’ Without Gatekeepers

Melee Raises $3.5M to Launch ‘Viral Prediction Markets’ Without Gatekeepers

The post Melee Raises $3.5M to Launch ‘Viral Prediction Markets’ Without Gatekeepers appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Melee, a new prediction market startup that says speculation and betting should be as open as online discussion, has raised $3.5 million from Variant, DBA and a group of angel investors to roll out what it calls “Viral Markets.” Crypto native companies have witnessed the runaway success of Polymarket, the digital asset betting platform that grew to prominence during the U.S. election campaigns. Other novel projects to emerge include ‘Forecast Markets,’ a type of dated futures contracts launched on Clearmatics’ Autonity blockchain. Melee, which allows anyone to easily create a market on anything, sees prediction markets evolving alongside the internet like other types of social networks, following dimensions like media type, social graphs, interest graphs, and more, VC firm Variant said in an email. “We see prediction markets not as a winner-take-all market but as a burgeoning category, much like social networks, where there can be many winners. Social networks reshaped the way we create and consume information and media,” Variant said. “Unlike existing platforms that rely on centralized teams or professional market makers, Melee uses a pricing mechanism that rewards traders for being early and correct,” Variant added. The design also aims to attract creators. Influencers, podcasters or streamers can open markets tied to their audience’s interests and earn revenue from trading activity without taking on reputational risk. A fictional example might be a streamer launching a market on whether a blockbuster video game release will hit its target date, allowing fans to speculate directly alongside the conversation. For traders, the appeal lies in asymmetric upside. Entering a market early means lower costs of exposure, and payouts rise as more participants join and the outcome becomes clearer. The project’s team includes veterans of Solana, Avalanche, Monad, SIG, Microsoft and Amazon. The long-term vision, according to the announcement, is to…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/25

South Park’s recent prediction markets feature causes speculation over Polymarket appearance

South Park’s recent prediction markets feature causes speculation over Polymarket appearance

The post South Park’s recent prediction markets feature causes speculation over Polymarket appearance appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. South Park’s Sept. 24 episode tackles prediction markets, and the crypto community is speculating if it will mention platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, or Myriad Markets. The episode description said Kyle and Cartman will feud over a betting app that gains popularity among their classmates, sparking immediate reactions from major platforms in the space. John Wang, head of crypto at Kalshi, posted episode details on X. He expressed surprise: “tomorrow’s south park episode is about… prediction markets????” Polymarket posted the same details with a casual “oh, hi SouthPark,” acknowledging the show’s attention to their industry. Bettors start betting Polymarket users created betting pools centered on the episode’s content. A market asking “Who will trade on a prediction market in South Park?” generated $10,500 in volume across 17 options as of press time. Cartman led at 87% odds, followed by Butters at 74%, Kyle at 73%, and Stan at 70%. Other characters, including Randy, Kenny, and even Trump and Satan, received lower probabilities. A second Polymarket pool on episode dialogue moved $9,000, offering 13 betting options. “Predict / Prediction 10+ times” tops the market at 62% odds, while “Poly / Poly- 5+ times” sits at 35%. References to Trump appear at 40% probability, with various market terminology ranging from 13% to 68% odds. Users also opened a betting pool on Myriad Markets, asking whether the episode would explicitly mention Polymarket, Kalshi, or Myriad by name. The $13,200 pool heavily favored “no” at 70.4% odds versus 29.6% for “yes,” with strict resolution terms requiring exact name mentions rather than parodies or generic references. A Kalshi poll asking “What will the South Park characters say during the prediction market episode?” registered nearly $10,000 as of press time, with “Scam,” (61%) “Election,” (59%) and “MAGA” (42%) leading the odds. Tarek Mansour, co-founder of Kalshi,…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/25

Polymarket Lures Bettors With Highest 4% Yield Amid Kalshi’s Weekly Volume Surge

Polymarket Lures Bettors With Highest 4% Yield Amid Kalshi’s Weekly Volume Surge

Polymarket has introduced a new incentive for prediction market participants, offering a 4% annualized yield on certain long-term positions. The reward, which is paid out daily, is designed to keep long-term pricing accurate and is currently funded through the Polymarket Treasury. According to the exchange, the yield applies to positions in a set of political and geopolitical markets, including the 2028 U.S. presidential race, the balance of power in the 2026 midterms, and leadership outcomes in countries such as Russia, China, Turkey, Israel, and Ukraine. Positions are valued based on the number of “Yes” and “No” shares held and the most recent mid-price, with rewards distributed after an hourly random sampling of accounts. The 4% rate is variable and may be adjusted or capped at the company’s discretion. Prediction Market Rivalry Heats Up as Kalshi Tops Polymarket by Volumes While Polymarket’s new holding rewards seek to attract long-term bettors, competitor Kalshi has been dominating in terms of trading activity. For three consecutive weeks, Kalshi has posted higher volumes than Polymarket, recording $728 million in trades last week. That figure is nearly 60% higher than Polymarket’s volume and close to Kalshi’s record $749 million during the run-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election.Source: Dune Analytics Data from Dune Analytics shows that between September 11 and 17, Kalshi captured 62% of total on-chain prediction market volume, with more than $500 million in trades and $189 million in open interest. Polymarket, by comparison, registered $430 million in trading volume and $164 million in open interest over the same period. Analysts note that Polymarket’s higher open interest relative to volume reflects longer-term positions, while Kalshi’s lower ratio points to faster turnover and more active trading. The competition between the two platforms shows diverging strategies. Kalshi, operating as a CFTC-authorized exchange, has capitalized on regulated event-based contract trading in the U.S. Polymarket, meanwhile, has historically catered to international users through blockchain-based markets but is expanding in the U.S. following its acquisition of the regulated exchange QCX. The company also recently launched earnings-based prediction markets in partnership with Stocktwits. Despite the differences in structure and oversight, both platforms continue to grow, with Kalshi solidifying its lead in weekly volume and Polymarket focusing on user retention through higher yields and long-term markets. CFTC Clears Polymarket for U.S. Return as Kalshi Faces State Lawsuit The prediction market space is entering a new phase as regulators in the U.S. take divergent approaches to two of its biggest players. On September 3, the CFTC cleared Polymarket to re-enter the U.S. through a no-action letter covering event contracts. The move marks Polymarket’s official return after a 2022 settlement forced it to block American users. CEO Shayne Coplan hailed the clearance as “a green light” for U.S. operations, noting that it gives the company space to scale legally. The breakthrough comes as Polymarket pursues a valuation of up to $10 billion, more than triple its last known $1 billion valuation in June. The firm rose to prominence after its markets accurately predicted Donald Trump’s 2024 victory, drawing major institutional backing and user growth. While Polymarket is regaining ground, rival Kalshi is facing legal hurdles. On September 13, Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell filed a civil lawsuit accusing Kalshi of running unlicensed sports betting disguised as “event contracts.” The suit alleges that between January and June 2025, 70–75% of Kalshi’s $1 billion in wagers came from sports markets, rivaling licensed operators like DraftKings. Regulators say the platform allowed underage betting and lacked safeguards required by state law. As Polymarket moves forward with regulatory cover, Kalshi’s future could hinge on a growing clash between state gambling laws and federal commodities oversight

Author: CryptoNews

2025/09/25

Will stablecoins break the token flywheel?

Will stablecoins break the token flywheel?

The post Will stablecoins break the token flywheel? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe. Crypto has grown into a Kafkaesque maze of meta-bets: Bitcoin is the reserve asset of the internet, and if it can do that, then Ethereum must be the World Computer.  But if Ethereum can’t scale to be the World Computer all by itself, then perhaps Solana, Avalanche or some other layer-1 will be the global settlement layer for computation instead. That settlement layer will need apps. Lots of them. Great for the fat app thesis — the investment logic that suggests “most of the value to be found in crypto today is to be found in apps.”  And if those fat apps have tokens, then hoo boy! — Imagine the value accrual. Especially for those apps that thrive in crypto’s hyperactive attention economy. What if the apps are so successful that they overload their settlement layers, thereby proving that those blockchains can’t scale, either? Or maybe their devs, validators or other ecosystem participants are not aligned with the apps themselves. What then? Fun with flywheels Odds are you’ll then love the appchain thesis. It has everything good about the fat app thesis, with the added benefit of a very special property: ongoing utility for network participants. Tokens can be dished out as rewards (read: payment) to the people and companies keeping the network online.  And those people need to stake their tokens (and not sell them) to receive more of those rewards — reducing downward pressure on the token’s price and maybe attracting new users (and holders) along the way. The token is an integral part of that flywheel. Something that Empire host Santiago Roel Santos said on today’s podcast got me thinking about all of this. The topic of Polymarket’s trajectory had come up, and Santi…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/23

Kalshi Outpaces Polymarket in Prediction Market Volume Amid Surge in U.S. Trading

Kalshi Outpaces Polymarket in Prediction Market Volume Amid Surge in U.S. Trading

The post Kalshi Outpaces Polymarket in Prediction Market Volume Amid Surge in U.S. Trading appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Kalshi is pulling ahead in the prediction market race, capturing a dominant share of trading volume even as competitors like Polymarket push into regulated U.S. territory. From Sept. 11 to 17, Kalshi accounted for 62% of total volume in the on-chain prediction market sector, according to data from Dune Analytics, while Polymarket’s stood at 37%. The former’s weekly trading pace topped $500 million, with an average open interest of around $189 million. Prediction market volumes (Dune) Its volume is beyond that of Polymarket, which stood at $430 million, and its average open interest of $164 million, which implies “sticker positions on Polymarket and faster turnover on Kalshi.” Polymarket’s longer-term markets, which often stretch over weeks or months, keep user funds locked in for longer periods, essentially. This shows up in the open interest-to-volume ratio: Polymarket averaged 0.38, while Kalshi sat lower at 0.29. That suggests Kalshi’s users are trading more often, while Polymarket’s positions tend to sit. Still, Polymarket is building out a greater position in the U.S. The platform has cleared its acquisition of QCX, a regulated derivatives exchange, to enter the country again. It has also launched earnings-based markets with social investing platform Stocktwits, designed to let stockholders hedge earnings risk and analysts gauge market sentiment in real time. Read more: Polymarket Weighs $9B Valuation Amid User Surge and CFTC Approval: The Information Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/20/kalshi-outpaces-polymarket-in-prediction-market-volume-amid-surge-in-u-s-trading

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/21

Kalshi Prediction Markets Are Pulling In $1 Billion Monthly as State Regulators Loom

Kalshi Prediction Markets Are Pulling In $1 Billion Monthly as State Regulators Loom

The post Kalshi Prediction Markets Are Pulling In $1 Billion Monthly as State Regulators Loom appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. In brief Kalshi reached $1 billion in monthly volume and now dominates 62% of the global prediction market industry, surpassing Polymarket’s 37% share. Four states including Massachusetts have filed lawsuits claiming Kalshi operates as an unlicensed sportsbook, with Massachusetts seeking to permanently bar the platform. Kalshi operates under federal CFTC regulation as a designated contract market, arguing this preempts state gambling laws that require separate licensing. Prediction market Kalshi just topped $1 billion in monthly volume as state regulators nip at its heels with lawsuits alleging that it’s an unregistered sports betting platform. “Despite being limited to only American customers, Kalshi has now risen to dominate the global prediction market industry,” the company said in a press release. “New data scraped from publicly available activity metrics details this rise.” The publicly available data appears on a Dune Analytics dashboard that’s been tracking prediction market notional volume. The data show that Kalshi now accounts for roughly 62% of global prediction market volume, Polymarket for 37%, and the rest split between Limitless and Myriad, the prediction market owned by Decrypt parent company Dastan. Trading volume on Kalshi skyrocketed in August, not coincidentally at the start of the NFL season and as the prediction market pushes further into sports.  But regulators in Maryland, Nevada, and New Jersey have all issued cease-and-desist orders, arguing Kalshi’s event contracts amount to unlicensed sports betting. Each case has spilled into federal court, with judges issuing preliminary rulings but no final decisions yet. Last week, Massachusetts went further, filing a lawsuit that calls Kalshi’s sports contracts “illegal and unsafe sports wagering.” The 43-page Massachusetts lawsuit seeks to stop the company from allowing state residents on its platform—much the way Coinbase has had to do with its staking offerings in parts of the United States. Massachusetts Attorney General…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/19

The $40 Million ‘Free Money’ Glitch in Crypto Prediction Markets

The $40 Million ‘Free Money’ Glitch in Crypto Prediction Markets

The post The $40 Million ‘Free Money’ Glitch in Crypto Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. In brief Researchers found $40 million in “risk-free” profits from mispriced markets on Polymarket in one year. Prices on some markets didn’t add up to 100%, letting traders lock in guaranteed gains. The same inefficiencies likely exist on other platforms like Myriad and Kalshi, though arbitrageurs help correct them. A new academic paper suggests there’s been a steady stream of “free money” lying around on Polymarket—and smart traders have been scooping it up. The paper, Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets, is the most detailed look yet at how mispricing creeps into crypto’s most popular prediction platform. The researchers combed through a year of data, from April 2024 to April 2025, and found thousands of instances where market prices simply didn’t add up. In some cases, the prices of “Yes” and “No” shares in a single market didn’t sum to one dollar as they theoretically should, creating a risk-free profit for anyone quick enough to pounce.  In other cases, the mispricing was more subtle, involving logically related markets. For example, a market on “Trump wins the presidency” might trade at very different odds than “Republican wins the presidency,” even though those outcomes are tightly linked. By buying and selling combinations of these contracts, a savvy trader could lock in a profit no matter what happens. The researchers estimate more than $40 million in profits have already been pulled from the system by arbitrageurs, traders who specialize in sniffing out and exploiting these kinds of inconsistencies. Far from being a theoretical curiosity, this is a live and lucrative business model. Is this pattern true across all prediction markets? What’s striking is how common these opportunities are. The study found more than 7,000 markets with measurable mispricing, many in highly liquid, closely watched contracts. “Prediction markets are often treated…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/18

Let insiders trade – Blockworks

Let insiders trade – Blockworks

The post Let insiders trade – Blockworks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. This is a segment from The Breakdown newsletter. To read more editions, subscribe ​​“The most valuable commodity I know of is information.” — Gordon Gekko, Wall Street Ten months ago, FBI agents raided Shayne Coplan’s Manhattan apartment, ostensibly in search of evidence that the prediction market he founded, Polymarket, had illegally allowed US residents to place bets on the US election. Two weeks ago, the CFTC gave Polymarket the green light to allow those very same US residents to place bets on whatever they like. This is quite the turn of events — and it’s not just about elections or politics. With its US government seal of approval in hand, Polymarket is reportedly raising capital at a valuation of $9 billion — a reflection of the growing belief that prediction markets will be used for much more than betting on elections once every four years. Instead, proponents say prediction markets can provide a real service to the world by providing it with better information about nearly everything. I think they might, too — but only if insiders are free to participate. Yesterday, for example, Polymarket announced new betting markets on company earnings reports, with a promise that it would improve the information that investors have to work with.  Instead of waiting three months to find out how a company is faring, investors could simply watch the odds on Polymarket.  If the probability of an earnings beat is rising, for example, investors would know at a glance that things are going well. But that will only happen if enough of the people betting actually know how things are going. Relying on the wisdom of crowds to magically discern how a business is doing won’t add much incremental knowledge to the world; everyone’s guesses are unlikely to average out to the truth. If…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/18

VanEck Targets Stablecoins & Next-Gen ICOs

VanEck Targets Stablecoins & Next-Gen ICOs

The post VanEck Targets Stablecoins & Next-Gen ICOs appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead. Grab a coffee because the firms shaping crypto’s future are not just building products, but also trying to reshape how capital flows. Crypto News of the Day: VanEck Maps Next Frontier of Crypto Venture Investing VanEck, a Wall Street player known for financial “firsts,” is pushing that legacy into Web3. The firsts include pioneering US gold funds and launching one of the earliest spot Bitcoin ETFs. Sponsored Sponsored “Financial instruments have always been a kind of tokenization. From seashells to traveler’s checks, from relational databases to today’s on-chain assets. You could even joke that VanEck’s first gold mutual funds were the original ‘tokenized gold,’” Juan C. Lopez, General Partner at VanEck Ventures, told BeInCrypto. That same instinct drives the firm’s venture bets. Lopez said VanEck goes beyond writing checks and brings the full weight of the firm. This extends from regulatory proximity to product experiments to founders building the next phase of crypto infrastructure. Asked about key investment priorities, Lopez highlighted stablecoins. “We care deeply about three questions: How do we accelerate stablecoin ubiquity? What will users want to do with them once highly distributed? And what net new assets can we construct now that we have sophisticated market infrastructure?” Lopez added. However, VanEck is not limiting itself to the hottest narrative, acknowledging that decentralized finance (DeFi) is having a renaissance. The VanEck executive also noted that success will depend on new approaches to identity and programmable compliance layered on public blockchains. Backing Legion With A New Model for ICOs Sponsored Sponsored That compliance-first angle explains VanEck Ventures’ recent co-lead of Legion’s $5 million seed round alongside Brevan Howard. Legion aims to reinvent token fundraising by making early-stage access…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/18

Recommended by active authors

BitcoinEthereumNews
BitcoinEthereumNews
619Articles
bitcoinworld
bitcoinworld
52Articles
Coinstats
Coinstats
34Articles
CoinPedia
CoinPedia
25Articles

Related Tags

#Oracle#Brifge#Yield-Farming#Basis-Trading#Launchpad#Liquid-Staking#Lending#DePIN#RWA

Latest Articles

XRP Adoption In Focus As Ripple Secures Full e-money Nod In Luxembourg To Scale Payment Services In The EU ⋆ ZyCrypto

XRP Adoption In Focus As Ripple Secures Full e-money Nod In Luxembourg To Scale Payment Services In The EU ⋆ ZyCrypto

2026/02/04 00:38
Xgram Launches Private USDT ERC20 to XMR Swaps

Xgram Launches Private USDT ERC20 to XMR Swaps

2026/02/04 00:04
Will SEC’s new capital requirements for crypto build resilience or erase local innovation?

Will SEC’s new capital requirements for crypto build resilience or erase local innovation?

2026/02/04 00:02
What Would Happen If Amazon Were To Incorporate XRP Into Its Services?

What Would Happen If Amazon Were To Incorporate XRP Into Its Services?

2026/02/04 00:00
Where Is Smart Money Heading After The Crypto Crash? Onchain Data Shows Remittix Stealing The Spotlight

Where Is Smart Money Heading After The Crypto Crash? Onchain Data Shows Remittix Stealing The Spotlight

2026/02/04 00:00