Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

902 Articles

Created: 2026/02/02 18:52

Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52

Kalshi Faces Lawsuit Alleging Illegal Sports Betting and Market Manipulation

The post Kalshi Faces Lawsuit Alleging Illegal Sports Betting and Market Manipulation appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Crime Kalshi, one of the fastest-growing players in the prediction-market sector, is facing a proposed class action that accuses the company of operating an unlicensed sports gambling service and manipulating market conditions. Key Takeaways Kalshi is facing a lawsuit accusing it of illegal sports gambling and market manipulation. The company rejects the claims, saying it is a CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and that the lawsuit is competitor-driven. The dispute comes during rapid growth, including a $1B raise, soaring trading volume, and a new Coinbase USDC custody partnership. The legal filing comes at a time when the firm is expanding rapidly and securing large funding rounds. The complaint alleges that Kalshi’s platform functions as a sportsbook without holding state gaming licenses and claims that customers are disadvantaged because market makers — described in the suit as effectively “the House” — sit on the opposite side of trades. Plaintiffs also argue that the company advertises its service as “legal sports betting,” which they say misleads users. Kalshi disputes the accusations. In a public statement, founder Luana Lopes Lara said the company operates only as a CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange, not as a gambling platform. She also stated that the lawsuit was encouraged by a competitor and misrepresents how event-driven markets work. According to Lara, liquidity on Kalshi is provided peer-to-peer, and any participant can supply it. The dispute highlights a much broader issue in the industry: how prediction markets should be regulated. A similar situation previously occurred at Polymarket, which in 2022 agreed to stop serving U.S. users following a settlement with the CFTC. Earlier this year, Polymarket returned to the domestic market by purchasing an exchange and clearinghouse. Rapid expansion raises visibility The lawsuit arrives during a period of strong growth for Kalshi. The company recently raised $1 billion, valuing it at $11…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/11/29

Is Kalshi Manipulating Prediction Markets? Platform Hit With Lawsuit Over Violations

The post Is Kalshi Manipulating Prediction Markets? Platform Hit With Lawsuit Over Violations appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Kalshi has been accused of illegal sports gambling and manipulating the market. This comes as the company sees great growth in its valuations and major funding achievements. Kalshi Hit With Lawsuit Over Alleged Market Manipulation According to Bloomberg, the platform has been hit with a proposed class action that claims the company ran an unlicensed sports betting operation. The complaint claims that the platform advertises itself as providing “legal sports betting” even though it does not have gaming licenses in any U.S. state. It also alleges Kalshi Trading creates betting lines in a way that puts customers at a disadvantage. “When consumers place bets on the platform, they face off against money provided by a sophisticated market maker on the other side of the ledger,” the plaintiffs said. “Market makers make it possible for consumers to place illegal, unregulated wagers ‘against the House.’” However, the firm says it operates only as a federally regulated derivatives exchange under the watch of the CFTC. The company’s founder Luana Lopes Lara shared a public statement to deny the claimes. She said that the lawsuit was cooked up by their competitors. Lara also mentioned that the claims are based on not knowing how event markets work. “This account and others are being paid by our competitor to amplify a baseless lawsuit. The allegations are false, and reveal a fundamental – and perhaps intentional – misunderstanding of how these markets work,” she said. She said that the platform is peer-to-peer exchange where any participant can provide liquidity. Polymarket also faced something similar to this. That firm was not allowed to serve U.S. users in 2022 because of a settlement with the CFTC. In September, Polymarket won back the ability to operate domestically by buying a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse. Kalshi’s Growth Draws in Attention The…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/11/29

Crypto Institutions Invest Nearly $25B in 2025 as Market Matures, With CEX, Prediction Markets, and DeFi Driving Inflows

The post Crypto Institutions Invest Nearly $25B in 2025 as Market Matures, With CEX, Prediction Markets, and DeFi Driving Inflows appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. COINOTAG News, citing DL News, reports that institutional investment in crypto for 2025 neared $25 billion, a 150% year-over-year rise that underscores mounting capital commitment to the sector. Leading buyers include Paradigm and Sequoia Capital, alongside Wall Street giants BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs, illustrating broad cross-sector demand for crypto exposure. DefiLlama data show demand concentrated in three lanes: centralized exchanges ($4.4B), prediction markets ($3.2B), and DeFi platforms ($2.9B), highlighting where capital is flowing within the ecosystem. Industry thinkers frame this shift as maturation rather than weakness: Knecht notes that capital is chasing projects with clear regulatory transparency and operational resilience, aligned with traditional finance standards. Chong sees funds gravitating toward revenue‑positive players with sustainable economics, signaling rational fundraising. Verbitskii argues that capital tends to flow into foundational infrastructure first, mirroring historic technology cycles. Source: https://en.coinotag.com/breakingnews/crypto-institutions-invest-nearly-25b-in-2025-as-market-matures-with-cex-prediction-markets-and-defi-driving-inflows

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/11/29

OKX Ventures Explores Evolving Crypto Prediction Markets

The post OKX Ventures Explores Evolving Crypto Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Iris Coleman Nov 28, 2025 11:00 OKX Ventures delves into the growth and development of crypto-native prediction markets, highlighting regulatory advancements and technological shifts in the Web3 space. The landscape of crypto-native prediction markets is undergoing a transformative evolution, driven by regulatory advancements and the integration of Web3 technology, according to OKX Ventures. As regulatory clarity improves and institutional capital continues to flow into this sector, prediction markets are transitioning from niche experiments into crucial tools for pricing information. Origin and Development of Prediction Markets Prediction markets, which aggregate collective intelligence to forecast events, have been around since the late 1980s. The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) set the stage in 1988 with its innovative concept of ‘price equals probability,’ demonstrating high predictive accuracy in the U.S. presidential election. Despite regulatory challenges over the years, platforms like Betfair and Intrade emerged, although their growth was often hampered by compliance issues. In recent years, the approval of platforms like Kalshi by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has marked a significant regulatory milestone. This, coupled with the adoption of blockchain and smart contracts, has enhanced the reliability and efficiency of these markets, reducing operational barriers and censorship risks. Market Growth and Platform Strategy Analysis The prediction market sector, particularly in 2025, has witnessed substantial growth, partly fueled by the U.S. election and increased institutional participation. The market has evolved from event-driven activities to more consistent financial trading, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi dominating the space. Polymarket, known for its decentralized approach, has maintained high user retention through category expansion beyond political events to include sports and crypto assets. Kalshi, on the other hand, has leveraged its regulatory compliance to achieve significant growth, surpassing Polymarket in trading volume by mid-2025. The platform’s ability to…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/11/29

Polymarket Shows 87% Chance of December Fed Cut; Crypto Stocks Move Higher

The post Polymarket Shows 87% Chance of December Fed Cut; Crypto Stocks Move Higher appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Several crypto-linked stocks climbed on Friday as prediction-market odds of a December rate cut surged to 87% on Polymarket, the highest level this month. Three US-listed Bitcoin miners led the rally, with Cleanspark, Riot Platforms and Cipher Mining all rising in the session and showing double-digit gains over the past five days. Probability of a US rate cut in December. Source: Polymarket Yahoo Finance data showed Circle, the issuer of USDC, jumped nearly 10% in early trading, while Michael Saylor’s Strategy and Coinbase notched more modest increases at the time of writing. Bitcoin (BTC) was also up around 7% on the week, after dropping to around $82,000 on Nov. 21, according to CoinGecko data. Top 10 Bitcoin mining stocks. Bitcoin Mining Stock Much of the volatility in prediction-market pricing this month has been driven by comments from Federal Reserve officials. On Oct. 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a December cut was “not a foregone conclusion,” a remark investors took as hawkish — which means the Fed could delay rate cuts and keep conditions tight. Polymarket odds slipped from 89% the day before to as low as 22% by Nov. 20. Sentiment shifted on Nov. 17 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank should consider cutting rates next month, arguing that “the labor market is still weak and near stall speed” and that inflation is now “relatively close” to the Fed’s 2% target. Related: Kalshi, Polymarket traders bet Supreme Court will curb Trump’s tariff powers Prediction markets expand as demand surges Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which enable bettors to wager on the outcomes of real-world events, have expanded their reach and influence this year. On Nov. 13, Polymarket inked a multi-year agreement with TKO Group Holdings to serve as the official prediction-market partner for the…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/11/29