In a harsh market environment where most people believe that “VC coins are dead,” “technical narratives are dead,” “Shanghai exchanges have definitely plummeted,” and “all transactions are MEME,” I think the time has come to buy dip in technology projects: 1) The overall expectation of the bearish Shanzhai season indirectly lowered the project valuation. Some excellent projects and bad projects will go through the same stages of airdrop -> stock exchange distribution -> market making and consolidation. Therefore, under the curse of a large number of bad projects reaching their peak as soon as they launch their tokens, high-quality projects will inevitably be killed by emotions. This is an opportunity for us to build positions in some high-quality projects at a low price. For example, what will happen to today's $ZKC $PROVE if it is switched to the TGE environment of $STRK? 2) There is a natural misalignment between the construction cycle of technology projects and their market launch cycle. We are currently in a quiet period of technological accumulation. ZK, TEE, AI infra, intent transactions, high-performance chains, etc., have issued a lot of tokens, but they have all become "technical debt". However, it is believed that this type of infrastructure needs to wait for the application layer to explode. When the market has another application layer explosion similar to DeFi and NFT (AI Agent?), these projects will really have a chance to come to the fore. 3) The holding experience of technology projects and MEME coins is worlds apart. In a bear market, we can choose a technology-focused project based on technical appreciation and hold it long-term to enjoy high-multiple growth. While MEME tokens have greater explosive power, they require high-intensity PVP trading and 24/7 market monitoring. The huge opportunity costs and psychological pressure are beyond the reach of most people. In a passive environment where the value fluctuations of holdings are uncontrollable, it is crucial to proactively choose a comfortable "holding experience." 4) The market is undergoing a structural clearing of narratives related to “technical debt.” Projects that are purely conceptual and capitalize on buzz without a significant market share or a say in key sectors will be completely eliminated. On the contrary, those that define technical standards, guide industry technological advancement, and have a presence in both upstream and downstream supply chains are poised for a second bloom. 5) The era of TradFi integration has opened up a new value anchor. The allocation and procurement needs of traditional Wall Street structures will provide a new value anchor for technology projects. Projects that can bring new capital into TradFi and provide upstream infrastructure for users are expected to be very promising. Furthermore, projects that adopt the PMF approach and are willing to repurchase tokens, as well as DATs that can continuously bring in incremental capital, will present even greater opportunities. While the industry's internal competition has created a high barrier to entry, it has also defined new valuation and target selection methodologies.In a harsh market environment where most people believe that “VC coins are dead,” “technical narratives are dead,” “Shanghai exchanges have definitely plummeted,” and “all transactions are MEME,” I think the time has come to buy dip in technology projects: 1) The overall expectation of the bearish Shanzhai season indirectly lowered the project valuation. Some excellent projects and bad projects will go through the same stages of airdrop -> stock exchange distribution -> market making and consolidation. Therefore, under the curse of a large number of bad projects reaching their peak as soon as they launch their tokens, high-quality projects will inevitably be killed by emotions. This is an opportunity for us to build positions in some high-quality projects at a low price. For example, what will happen to today's $ZKC $PROVE if it is switched to the TGE environment of $STRK? 2) There is a natural misalignment between the construction cycle of technology projects and their market launch cycle. We are currently in a quiet period of technological accumulation. ZK, TEE, AI infra, intent transactions, high-performance chains, etc., have issued a lot of tokens, but they have all become "technical debt". However, it is believed that this type of infrastructure needs to wait for the application layer to explode. When the market has another application layer explosion similar to DeFi and NFT (AI Agent?), these projects will really have a chance to come to the fore. 3) The holding experience of technology projects and MEME coins is worlds apart. In a bear market, we can choose a technology-focused project based on technical appreciation and hold it long-term to enjoy high-multiple growth. While MEME tokens have greater explosive power, they require high-intensity PVP trading and 24/7 market monitoring. The huge opportunity costs and psychological pressure are beyond the reach of most people. In a passive environment where the value fluctuations of holdings are uncontrollable, it is crucial to proactively choose a comfortable "holding experience." 4) The market is undergoing a structural clearing of narratives related to “technical debt.” Projects that are purely conceptual and capitalize on buzz without a significant market share or a say in key sectors will be completely eliminated. On the contrary, those that define technical standards, guide industry technological advancement, and have a presence in both upstream and downstream supply chains are poised for a second bloom. 5) The era of TradFi integration has opened up a new value anchor. The allocation and procurement needs of traditional Wall Street structures will provide a new value anchor for technology projects. Projects that can bring new capital into TradFi and provide upstream infrastructure for users are expected to be very promising. Furthermore, projects that adopt the PMF approach and are willing to repurchase tokens, as well as DATs that can continuously bring in incremental capital, will present even greater opportunities. While the industry's internal competition has created a high barrier to entry, it has also defined new valuation and target selection methodologies.

Will tech coins usher in a new era? Opportunity capture strategies under the new valuation system

2025/09/17 12:00
3 min read

In a harsh market environment where most people believe that “VC coins are dead,” “technical narratives are dead,” “Shanghai exchanges have definitely plummeted,” and “all transactions are MEME,” I think the time has come to buy dip in technology projects:

1) The overall expectation of the bearish Shanzhai season indirectly lowered the project valuation.

Some excellent projects and bad projects will go through the same stages of airdrop -> stock exchange distribution -> market making and consolidation. Therefore, under the curse of a large number of bad projects reaching their peak as soon as they launch their tokens, high-quality projects will inevitably be killed by emotions. This is an opportunity for us to build positions in some high-quality projects at a low price. For example, what will happen to today's $ZKC $PROVE if it is switched to the TGE environment of $STRK?

2) There is a natural misalignment between the construction cycle of technology projects and their market launch cycle.

We are currently in a quiet period of technological accumulation. ZK, TEE, AI infra, intent transactions, high-performance chains, etc., have issued a lot of tokens, but they have all become "technical debt". However, it is believed that this type of infrastructure needs to wait for the application layer to explode. When the market has another application layer explosion similar to DeFi and NFT (AI Agent?), these projects will really have a chance to come to the fore.

3) The holding experience of technology projects and MEME coins is worlds apart.

In a bear market, we can choose a technology-focused project based on technical appreciation and hold it long-term to enjoy high-multiple growth. While MEME tokens have greater explosive power, they require high-intensity PVP trading and 24/7 market monitoring. The huge opportunity costs and psychological pressure are beyond the reach of most people. In a passive environment where the value fluctuations of holdings are uncontrollable, it is crucial to proactively choose a comfortable "holding experience."

4) The market is undergoing a structural clearing of narratives related to “technical debt.”

Projects that are purely conceptual and capitalize on buzz without a significant market share or a say in key sectors will be completely eliminated. On the contrary, those that define technical standards, guide industry technological advancement, and have a presence in both upstream and downstream supply chains are poised for a second bloom.

5) The era of TradFi integration has opened up a new value anchor.

The allocation and procurement needs of traditional Wall Street structures will provide a new value anchor for technology projects. Projects that can bring new capital into TradFi and provide upstream infrastructure for users are expected to be very promising. Furthermore, projects that adopt the PMF approach and are willing to repurchase tokens, as well as DATs that can continuously bring in incremental capital, will present even greater opportunities. While the industry's internal competition has created a high barrier to entry, it has also defined new valuation and target selection methodologies.

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