PAGASA announces end of weak 2025-2026 La Niña

MANILA, Philippines – The brief 2025-2026 La Niña episode has ended in the tropical Pacific Ocean, the Philippines’ weather bureau announced on Monday, March 9.

Conditions have already returned to ENSO-neutral, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

ENSO stands for El Niño Southern Oscillation, which the World Meteorological Organization defines as “a recurring natural phenomenon characterized by fluctuating ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, coupled with changes in the atmosphere.” It has three phases: El Niño or the warm phase, La Niña or the cool phase, and neutral.

The just-concluded La Niña episode began in late 2025 and was characterized as relatively weak. In the Philippines, La Niña usually triggers above-normal rainfall.

PAGASA said in a statement on Monday that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist until the June–July–August 2026 season.

The weather bureau warned the public, however, that “other weather and climate systems may still influence rainfall distribution in the country” despite the end of La Niña.

Possible sources of rain in the next six months, or from March to August, include the northeast monsoon or amihan, easterlies, shear line, localized thunderstorms, intertropical convergence zone, low pressure areas, tropical cyclones, and the southwest monsoon or habagat which typically begins in the second half of May or first half of June.

Six to 14 tropical cyclones are expected to form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility from March to August.

Based on PAGASA data from 1948 to 2024, July, August, and September are the months with the highest average tropical cyclone frequency, with 3.2, 3.0, and 3.1 tropical cyclones, respectively.

But before frequent rainfall, the Philippines will soon have to face extreme heat. The northeast monsoon is already winding down, which would mean the end of the cool and dry season. The start of the warm and dry season or tag-init is expected to be declared within March.

In 2025, PAGASA had announced the onset of the warm and dry season on March 26. – Rappler.com