XRP Technical Analysis Feb 18

XRP’s 24-hour trading volume reached 1.56 billion dollars, and despite the slight price decline, the volume staying below average indicates weak selling pressure. This situation may herald a possible accumulation process due to low market participation and shows that the downward movement is not confirmed by volume.

Volume Profile and Market Participation

XRP’s trading volume over the last 24 hours was 1.56 billion dollars, below the daily average range of approximately 1.8-2 billion dollars. This reveals that the selling move occurred without strong market participation, especially despite the price recording a slight 0.14% decline within the downtrend. According to volume profile analysis, high-volume days observed in recent weeks (e.g., over 2.5 billion dollars) were typically seen during upward pushes, while the current low volume suggests that sellers’ energy is waning and buyers are waiting on the sidelines.

From a market participation perspective, while RSI is hovering in a neutral zone at 42.42, the divergence between the MACD’s positive histogram and volume is noteworthy. Low-volume declines can be indicators of healthy consolidation; whereas high-volume declines reflect panic selling, the low participation here implies that the trend is exhausting. Looking at multi-timeframe (MTF) volume levels, a total of 11 strong levels have been identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 3 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1 support/3 resistances on 3D, and 2 supports/4 resistances on 1W, predominantly. This structure shows that volume is more concentrated in resistance zones and advancing toward supports with low-volume leaks.

As an educational note, let’s recall the volume profile’s “value area” concept: XRP’s 30-day volume profile shows the highest volume nodes (POC – Point of Control) forming in the 1.40-1.60 range. With the current price at 1.48 near this area, the low volume indicates that the value area is remaining stable without expansion and that new participants are on hold. This brings to mind a scenario where retail investors are on the sidelines while institutional players are quietly shaping their positions.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

The accumulation phase hides in low-volume declines, and XRP is showing exactly this picture. While the price is below EMA20 (1.53) giving a bearish short-term signal, the volume being 15-20% below in 24h shows that selling is exhausting. Although Supertrend is bearish (resistance 1.81), support levels around 1.4274 (score 79/100) and 1.2828 (71/100) have formed volume bases. Past low-volume tests at these levels were followed by rebounds, which is a classic accumulation pattern: “spring” or “shakeout”.

Additionally, although the MACD’s bullish signal is not supported by volume, it creates positive divergence. Ideal condition for institutional accumulation: volume decreases as price falls, implying buyers are dollar-cost averaging. For detailed spot analysis, you can check XRP Spot Analysis.

Distribution Risks

High-volume upward moves are sought for distribution signals; however, with low volume in the current 0.14% decline, possible trap volumes should be monitored at resistances (1.6718 score 79/100, 1.4953 score 68/100). If the price fails to break 1.4953 with low volume, the risk of shifting to distribution increases. The bearish target of 0.7220 (score 22) can be reached with low-volume declines, but a move to the bullish target of 2.2591 (score 25) requires volume increase.

Price-Volume Confluence

As price advances in the downtrend without volume confirmation: volume staying below average on decline days confirms the bearish move is weak. While healthy declines are high-volume, the low participation here shows the trend lacks confirmation. On upward days (slight rebounds observed in the last 3 days), volume increases slightly but is insufficient for EMA20 breakout.

Divergence example: As price falls, RSI does not fall (stable at 42), volume decreases – bullish divergence. This emphasizes that price is moving without volume and real strength may be on the buyer side. We recommend checking XRP Futures Analysis for futures traders, as leverage volumes offer different dynamics from spot.

Big Player Activity

Big players (whales/institutions) reveal themselves not in volume explosions but in quiet accumulations. In XRP, recent MTF levels show volume clusters at supports despite 4 resistances weighting on the 1W timeframe. This suggests institutional activity testing and holding lower levels. Clean candles instead of high-volume wicks (long shadows) indicate natural flow without manipulation.

Unhealthy volume: Sudden spikes followed by fade (fading). Absent in XRP; on the contrary, stable low volume implies big players are not distributing but waiting for accumulation. However, exact positions cannot be known, only interpreted through patterns.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at 67,565 level with -1.40% decline in downtrend (Supertrend bearish), supports at 66,597 / 62,910 / 60,000; resistances at 68,048 / 71,217 / 78,145. XRP is highly correlated with BTC (0.85+), and volume escape from altcoins is typical as BTC dominance rises. If BTC drops below 66,597, pressure increases on XRP’s 1.42 support; however, if BTC recovers above 68,000, XRP’s bullish target opens to 2.25. BTC-focused caution: BTC stabilization is required for altcoin rally.

Volume-Based Outlook

Volume-based outlook is cautiously bullish: Low-volume declines support accumulation, and if 1.4274 support holds, an upward pivot is expected. Watch: Bullish confirmation on volume breakout above 2 billion. Risk: Volume increase with BTC crash turns to distribution. Overall, volume is contradicting price – weak bearish, potential reversal signal. Do your own research for investment decisions.