Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: CPI at 2.4% Fuels Rate-Cut Bets as XAU/USD Stabilizes Above $5,000

As of February 14, 2026, spot XAU/USD trades around $5,020, holding firm above a key technical base despite heightened volatility earlier in the week.

The latest inflation data have shifted the short-term gold market outlook, with traders reassessing the trajectory of interest rates and real yields—two core drivers behind the gold price and the Fed’s policy narrative.

Softer CPI Lifts Gold’s Macro Backdrop

Fresh data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed headline CPI rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, slightly below consensus estimates. Core CPI matched expectations at 0.3% monthly and 2.5% annually.

A softer-than-expected CPI reading of 2.4% typically influences gold prices by reshaping interest rate expectations, real yield dynamics, and U.S. dollar strength. Source: Wall Street Gold via X

That combination was enough to ease pressure on Treasury yields and revive rate-cut speculation. Market pricing now reflects growing confidence in at least one 25-basis-point cut by mid-2026, with additional easing potentially following before year-end.

Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. In that context, gold and interest rates remain closely linked. As real yields soften, the gold price outlook tends to improve.

$5,000 Emerges as Key Technical Pivot

From a structural standpoint, the gold price chart tells a story of recovery after extreme volatility. Late January saw a blow-off rally toward $5,600 per ounce, followed by a rapid collapse to near $4,400 in just four sessions. The drop erased trillions in precious metals market value and forced a widespread liquidation of leveraged positions.

XAU/USD is currently holding above the critical $5,040–$5,060 support zone, maintaining its structure above the ascending triangle trendline and signaling continued short-term stability. Source: Ratner on TradingView

Since that capitulation low, the gold spot price has staged a V-shaped rebound of roughly 14%, stabilizing in the $4,980–$5,030 range. Analysts now describe $5,000 as a “pivot zone.” Breaks above tend to open the path toward $5,100, while pullbacks continue to attract demand around $4,800.

On the four-hour timeframe, price action shows compression above the $5,040–$5,060 support band. Gold is forming higher lows along a rising trendline, reflecting gradual accumulation. A confirmed move above $5,100 could validate a short-term double-bottom reversal and shift the short-term gold price forecast toward the $5,180 resistance zone.

However, failure to hold above $4,665 would expose deeper downside risk toward $4,500–$4,400, which remains the critical structural floor of the current cycle.

Structure Favors Buyers—For Now

From a technical analysis perspective, recent pullbacks appear corrective rather than impulsive. Momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD are stabilizing after unwinding overbought conditions, suggesting consolidation rather than outright trend reversal.

If gold breaks decisively above $5,100, it would confirm a double bottom reversal pattern, potentially triggering renewed bullish momentum and accelerating the next leg higher. Source: @XAUUSD__Alice via X

The current gold price support levels are clustered around $5,040 and $4,800, while immediate gold price resistance levels stand near $5,100 and $5,180. A sustained breakout above that upper barrier would strengthen the case for renewed bullish momentum.

Conversely, a decisive breakdown below the rising triangle support line would shift the gold price analysis back toward bearish pressure.

GLD Technical Outlook: Bearish Structure Persists Below Key Supply Zone

The technical structure of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has shifted decisively from bullish to bearish after failing to hold above the 509.69 Change of Character (CHoCH) level. Following that rejection, the ticker GLD reversed sharply, breaking below its prior higher low and confirming a Break of Structure (BOS) near 422.53. This move signals that the previous uptrend has transitioned into bearish continuation rather than a temporary pullback. For traders monitoring $GLD on the New York Stock Exchange, the structural bias now favors sellers unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.

GLD topped near 509.69 (CHoCH) before reversing sharply and breaking structure at 422.53, confirming a shift from bullish momentum to a broader bearish continuation. Source: ProSignalai on TradingView

The 485–495 supply zone remains firm, repeatedly capping recovery attempts with strong bearish reactions. On the downside, demand around 440–455 has provided only modest support, while the 420–425 region stands out as a more significant downside target if selling resumes. Recent upward movement from the mid-450s appears corrective and lacks strong momentum, suggesting distribution rather than accumulation. A sustained break above 495 would invalidate the bearish outlook, but until then, GLD’s price action continues to reflect downside risk within a broader downtrend.

Final Thoughts

In the near term, traders are watching U.S. growth and business activity data for additional direction. Stronger employment figures have recently tempered expectations for an immediate March rate cut, but the broader trend still favors easing later in the year.

For those considering whether gold is a good investment right now, the answer depends largely on interest-rate expectations and risk appetite. As long as inflation remains contained near the 2.4–2.6% band and policymakers lean toward accommodation, the gold macro outlook remains constructive.

Looking further ahead, the gold price prediction 2026 hinges on the pace of Federal Reserve easing, central bank gold buying, and the evolution of global growth risks. Sustained policy loosening could support higher long-term targets, while renewed dollar strength may cap upside potential.

For now, XAU/USD appears balanced but resilient. With inflation cooling and the $5,000 threshold reclaimed, the gold price forecast this week leans cautiously bullish—provided key support levels continue to hold.