Why Rivian (RIVN) Stock Just Had Its Best Day Ever With 28% Rally

TLDR

• Rivian stock surged 28% on Friday, marking its largest single-day gain ever after reporting fourth-quarter results and 2026 guidance
• The company posted better-than-expected Q4 results with $1.29 billion in revenue and a smaller loss of $0.70 per share while achieving its second consecutive quarter of gross profit
• Rivian’s lower-priced R2 SUV remains on track for customer deliveries in Q2 2026, which CEO RJ Scaringe called a “key inflection” for the company
• The company projects 2026 deliveries between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles, up from about 42,000 in 2025, as it prepares to launch more affordable models
• Multiple analysts upgraded Rivian following the earnings report, with Deutsche Bank moving to Buy and UBS upgrading to Neutral

Rivian stock exploded higher on Friday, climbing 28% in its biggest rally on record. The move came after the electric vehicle maker reported fourth-quarter earnings and updated investors on its 2026 plans.

Rivian Automotive, Inc., RIVN

The company posted revenue of about $1.29 billion and a loss per share of $0.70. Both numbers beat Wall Street expectations. Rivian also notched its second straight quarter of gross profit at $120 million.

But the real story was what’s coming next. Rivian confirmed its lower-priced R2 SUV will start deliveries in the second quarter of 2026. CEO RJ Scaringe called it a “key inflection” for the business.

The R2 targets a much wider buyer base than Rivian’s current R1T truck and R1S SUV. Both of those models carry premium price tags. The R2 aims to change that equation.

Rivian guided 2026 deliveries between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles. That’s a jump from roughly 42,000 deliveries in 2025. The guidance suggests the company expects real growth after a flat year.

Wall Street responded quickly. Deutsche Bank upgraded Rivian to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to $23 from $16. UBS moved to Neutral from Sell with a $16 target, up from $15.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives kept his Outperform rating and $25 price target. He called the R2 launch “crucial” for the company’s future.

Delivery Guidance Takes Center Stage

For EV makers, delivery projections often matter more than quarterly earnings. They signal future demand and production plans. Rivian’s Q4 deliveries fell to 9,745 vehicles from 14,183 a year earlier.

The drop reflected broader industry weakness. U.S. EV sales tumbled 36% year over year in the fourth quarter. The expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit at the end of September hit demand hard.

Despite the near-term pressure, Rivian showed cost discipline. The company recorded gross profit for two quarters running. It also generated revenue from software and services tied to its Volkswagen partnership.

That income stream matters. It shows Rivian can make money beyond vehicle sales. Investors view this as progress toward business stability.

What Comes Next for Rivian

The company still faces losses. Rivian expects adjusted EBITDA losses between $1.8 billion and $2.1 billion in 2026. It plans to spend around $2 billion preparing for the R2 rollout.

Net loss for Q4 came in at $804 million. That beat estimates of $1 billion but shows profitability remains distant. Rivian ended the quarter with $6.7 billion in cash and investments.

Wall Street projects the company will burn through $3.5 billion in cash during 2026. That gives Rivian runway, but execution matters more than ever.

The R2 launch will be critical. Higher production volume helps lower per-vehicle costs. That’s the path to narrowing losses and eventually reaching profitability.

Investors will watch whether Rivian can ramp production smoothly. Meeting the 62,000 to 67,000 delivery target depends on it. Early R2 production runs will set the tone.

Cash burn and margin trends also deserve attention. The recent gross profit was encouraging. But sustained progress requires higher output and tighter cost control.

Analysts have mixed views on the stock. Seven rate it a Buy, four say Hold, and five recommend Sell. The average price target sits at $17.75, implying 26.8% upside from recent levels.

Rivian closed Friday at $17.73. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both gained about 0.1%.

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