Is AVAX at a Macro Bottom? 2,400% Upside Scenario Explained

AVAX forms weekly Elliott Wave structure after 95% drop, with targets at $33, $58, $97, and $147 if $5.50 support holds.

Avalanche (AVAX) is trading inside a multi-year descending channel that began after its 2021 all-time high.

A recent technical analysis shared by CryptoPatel outlines a long-term Elliott Wave structure forming on the weekly chart.

The analyst suggests that AVAX may be at a macro bottom, with a potential upside scenario extending toward 2026 or 2027 if key levels hold.

Elliott Wave Structure Forms After 95% Correction

According to CryptoPatel, AVAX has completed a 95% cycle correction from its 2021 peak.

Price action marked a macro bottom between $8 and $5, with Wave 1 reportedly completing at $5.67. The asset is now described as transitioning into an early Wave 2 recovery phase on the weekly timeframe.

The structure is developing within a long-term descending channel that has capped price since the previous cycle high. The chart shows a bearish breakdown and a retest of the lower trendline, creating a deviation setup.

A liquidity sweep into the weekly demand zone between $8 and $7 is also noted.

CryptoPatel stated that the fractal structure mirrors compression seen in prior cycles. The analysis points to macro support holding above $5.50 as a key condition.

A weekly close below $5.50 would invalidate the Wave 1 low and negate the current bullish structure.

Key Levels and Confirmation Signals

The analysis outlines several upside targets if the Elliott Wave structure continues to develop.

Projected price levels include $33, $58, $97, and $147. From the reported macro bottom to the highest target, the move would represent an expansion of approximately 2,489%.

A sustained weekly push toward mid-channel resistance is identified as the primary confirmation signal. The analyst notes that price must show strength and expansion on higher timeframes.

Until then, AVAX remains within the broader descending structure. The setup is described as a high-timeframe structure that requires patience.

The analyst emphasizes that the outlook is based on technical analysis only. CryptoPatel says the scenario suits spot positioning and long-term holders, not short-term traders.

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Long-Term Outlook Toward 2026–2027

The projection suggests that AVAX could expand toward the upper boundary of the descending channel if the Elliott Wave count remains valid.

The potential timeline for such a move extends into 2026 or 2027. The broader crypto cycle is referenced as a contextual factor in the analysis.

The macro support at $5.50 remains the defined invalidation level. As long as price holds above that threshold on a weekly close, the bullish bias remains active.

A breakdown below that level would require a reassessment of the wave structure.

CryptoPatel concluded the analysis with the disclaimer, “TA only. Not financial advice. Always DYOR.”

Market participants continue to monitor whether AVAX can sustain higher timeframe strength and confirm the proposed recovery structure.

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