Bitcoin Shorts Hit August 2024 Levels as Funding Rates Sink Deeply Negative

Aggregated funding rate data across major cryptocurrency exchanges revealed that the current wave of short positioning is the most extreme since August 2024, a period that coincided with a major bottom for Bitcoin, according to new analysis from Santiment.

At that time, funding rates sank deeply into negative territory as traders overwhelmingly positioned for further downside, amidst intense fear and bearish sentiment across the market.

Extreme Bear Bets Before 2024 Reversal

Instead of continuing lower, Santiment found that prices reversed sharply, and the forced unwinding of overcrowded short positions helped fuel a strong recovery. Following that August 2024 low, Bitcoin went on to climb roughly 83% over the next four months. The move illustrated how extreme negative funding conditions can emerge right before powerful rebounds.

Santiment explained that funding rates are a mechanism within perpetual futures markets, and are designed to keep futures prices aligned with spot prices. These rates represent small, periodic payments exchanged between traders. When funding is negative, short sellers pay long traders, and when it is positive, long traders pay shorts.

When aggregated funding rates across exchanges fall far below zero, it means that a major share of market participants is heavily positioned for declining prices, often driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt. Such imbalances can create conditions ripe for sharp counter-moves.

Many short positions are opened using leverage, meaning traders borrow capital to amplify potential gains. If prices move higher instead of lower, losses on these leveraged shorts can accumulate rapidly. Once losses breach predefined thresholds, exchanges automatically liquidate those positions to manage risk.

When large numbers of shorts are forced to close simultaneously, the resulting wave of buying can accelerate price increases, a trend commonly referred to as a short squeeze. The deeper funding rates fall into negative territory, the more crowded short positions become, and the greater the potential fuel for a sudden reversal.

Aftermath of October Binance Liquidations

The analytics platform also pointed to recent market activity surrounding a liquidation event on Binance on October 10, 2025, when a wave of long liquidations contributed to a sharp drop in BTC’s price. In the aftermath of that move, traders increasingly shifted into short positions as they expected further downside, which ended up recreating a similar imbalance that could be observed through funding rate data.

Current aggregated metrics suggest sentiment has once again leaned heavily in one direction. While Santiment stated that heavy short positioning does not guarantee an immediate rally, it described the present environment as one of high risk, where positioning pressure could flip into rapid upside volatility if shorts are forced to unwind.

Based on broader sentiment indicators, it added that these short positions are unlikely to close voluntarily. This makes a liquidation-driven move higher a more probable resolution.

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