BCH Technical Analysis Feb 3

Bitcoin Cash (BCH), with RSI at 37.86 approaching the oversold region, is giving short-term momentum recovery signals; however, the MACD’s negative histogram and trading below EMA20 are maintaining the dominant downtrend.

Trend Status and Momentum Analysis

BCH is moving within the overall downtrend despite a daily %4.48 rise to its current price of 531.90 USD. The daily range was between 497.70 – 544.10 USD, while volume remained at a moderate level of 311.20 million USD, signaling weak momentum. The short-term recovery stems from RSI’s low levels, but the MACD’s bearish configuration and Supertrend’s resistance level at 623.62 USD giving a bearish signal indicate that trend strength still favors sellers. In the EMA ribbon, short-term lines are sloping downward and the price is trapped below EMA20 (567.02 USD), confirming that momentum is under negative pressure. Multiple time frame (MTF) analysis detected 11 strong levels: 3 supports/4 resistances on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, and 2S/3R confluence on 1W, increasing volatility potential. Lack of volume confirmation raises trap risk in sudden moves; thus, a cautious approach is essential for momentum traders.

RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?

RSI Divergence Analysis

RSI (14) is currently at 37.86 and positioned just above the oversold threshold of 30. Recently, while price made new lows (around 497.70 USD), RSI began showing regular bullish divergence signals: Despite price making lower lows, RSI is holding higher lows, indicating hidden buying momentum is forming. No regular divergence, but hidden bullish divergence (HTFB) can signal momentum shifts ahead while the trend continues. On the 1D chart, RSI has potential to bounce toward the 50 level; if it breaks above 40, the short-term buy signal strengthens. However, in the overall downtrend, volume confirmation of this divergence is critical; current volume decline increases fake breakout risk.

Overbought/Oversold Regions

RSI at 37.86 has approached the oversold region (below 30), bringing short squeeze or mean reversion opportunities to the forefront. In the past at similar levels (e.g., January 2026 lows), RSI bounces from 35 triggered 10-15% recoveries. Currently far from overbought at 70, sellers may be exhausted. From a momentum confluence perspective, the oversold crossover of Stochastic and RSI should be monitored; if RSI tests 30 and turns up, confirmation for aggressive long positions can be obtained. Still, oversold bounces can be short-lived when trend strength is weak.

MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics

MACD is bearish, with the signal line below the MACD line and the histogram expanding in the negative zone. Histogram bars have grown from -15.2 to -18.4 over the last 3 days, showing strengthening selling momentum; however, the expansion rate has slowed, which may signal contraction. No signal line crossover, the last crossover on January 28 was bearish and price fell %8. In terms of divergence, despite price’s recent rise, the MACD histogram made a lower low (regular bearish divergence), confirming the rally’s weakness. For momentum traders, wait for the histogram to approach the zero line; a shift from negative to positive, if confluencing with EMA, becomes a strong buy signal. If supported by volume, a test of 557 USD resistance may come.

EMA Systems and Trend Strength

Short-Term EMAs

Price is below EMA20 (567.02 USD) and the ribbon between EMA9-EMA20 is expanding downward, short-term trend bearish. Distance to EMA50 (around 580 USD) shows momentum loss; price breaking above EMA20 could trigger ribbon squeeze. Short-term dynamics brought the recent %4.48 rise closer to EMA10, but it lacked volume. In trend strength measurement, the EMA ribbon slope at -2.1 degrees confirms weak downtrend.

Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports

In the medium term, EMA50 and EMA100 (around 600 USD) are acting as resistance, while EMA200 (around 650 USD) is the key to the long-term downtrend. Price is below these lines, with the ribbon bearish sloping in the medium term. Long-term supports cluster at 467 USD (EMA111) and 446 USD; a breakdown accelerates momentum. EMA system confluence expects price to test EMA20; if it holds, short-term bullish shift is possible.

Bitcoin Correlation

BCH shows high correlation with BTC (%0.87); despite BTC at 78,627 USD +%3.19, downtrend and Supertrend are bearish. BTC supports at 76,260 – 63,235 USD are critical; BTC falling below 76k would push BCH below 500 USD. Resistances at 79,364 USD; BTC breakout provides momentum for BCH Spot Analysis. If BTC dominance rises, pressure increases on altcoins, monitor volatility in BCH Futures Analysis on futures.

Momentum Outcome and Expectations

In momentum synthesis, RSI’s oversold approach and potential bullish divergence offer short-term bounce hope, but MACD negative histogram and position below EMA maintain dominant bearish outlook. Main support at 507.54 USD (score 62/100), breakdown leads to 446.90 USD; resistance at 531.80 USD (86/100) just above, breakout opens door to 557 USD. Bullish target 730 USD low score, bearish 309 USD risky. Volume increase and BTC stabilization are essential; MTF confluence promises volatility. Momentum traders should watch RSI 40 breakout and MACD histogram contraction as confluence, with risk management in focus.