XMR Technical Analysis Feb 2

XMR is struggling to hold above the short-term EMA20 within the general downtrend, showing bearish momentum at RSI 38 level, and ready to test critical support regions in the 117-100 range. Market volume is supported with low participation, but Bitcoin correlation presents a risky outlook for altcoins.

Executive Summary

XMR closed the day down %7.95 at 389.98$ as of February 2, 2026, under the dominance of the general downtrend. While showing bullish signals above the short-term EMA20 (130.53$), Supertrend is bearish (resistance 145.76$), MACD has a negative histogram, and RSI at 38.32 continues the bearish pressure. Critical supports to watch: 117.58$, 100.40$, and 109.55$; resistances 131.17$ and 119.35$. Multi-timeframe shows 9 strong levels (1D:4S/2R, 3D:3S/3R, 1W:4S/3R). Bullish target 180.70$ (low score 28), bearish 60.25$ (score 21). Risk/reward ratio favors the downside, with Bitcoin’s downtrend pressuring altcoins. Links for XMR Spot Analysis and XMR Futures Analysis.

Market Structure and Trend Status

Current Trend Analysis

XMR’s market is in a clear downtrend; it fluctuated in the 387-426 range with a %7.95 loss in the last 24 hours. The daily chart shows a broken higher-high lower-low structure, Supertrend giving a bearish signal, and resistance clarifying at 145.76$. On the weekly line, previous highs (426$) have been broken, supporting bearish continuation. However, in the short-term recovery, price appears to have crossed above EMA20 (130.53$), which could create a local bullish divergence. Multi-timeframe analysis (1D/3D/1W) shows 9 strong levels: 1D with 4 supports/2 resistances, 3D balanced 3S/3R, 1W with 4S/3R pressure. The overall structure is moving within a large bearish channel in the big picture, with upward movement limited without a breakout.

Structural Levels

Structural supports derived from Fibonacci retracement and pivot points: Primary support 117.5842$ (score 80/100, strong volume accumulation area), secondary 100.4000$ (71/100, psychological level), third 109.5542$ (69/100, near EMA50). Resistance regions: 131.1706$ (76/100, Supertrend resistance), 119.3508$ (71/100, local swing high). These levels are supported by order blocks and imbalance areas; volatility will rise on breaks. The long-term channel lower band could be tested at 100$.

Technical Indicators Report

Momentum Indicators

RSI(14) at 38.32, near oversold but showing bearish divergence – peaks are lowering while RSI is not rising. This confirms momentum loss, and panic selling could be triggered if it drops below 30. MACD is bearish: Histogram expanding negatively, no crossover above signal line, bearish momentum dominant. Stochastic %K below %D, Williams %R in the -70s – all momentum indicators giving sell signals. Short-term divergence: Price above EMA20 but momentum bearish, high fakeout risk.

Trend Indicators

EMAs: Price bullish short-term above EMA20 (130.53$), but below EMA50/100/200 (approx. 120-110 range), overall bearish. No EMA20>EMA50 crossover, death cross active. Supertrend bearish, trailing stop at 145.76$ resistance. Ichimoku Cloud red, Tenkan tip below Kijun. ADX 25+ with medium trend strength, -DI above +DI. This confluence shows the strength of the downtrend; EMA20 break will be the main trigger.

Critical Support and Resistance Analysis

Supports in detail: 117.5842$ (80/100, multi-TF confluence, volume spike), 100.4000$ (71/100, psycho + Fib 0.618), 109.5542$ (69/100, near EMA). Resistance: 131.1706$ (76/100, Supertrend + pivot), 119.3508$ (71/100, swing). Distant targets: Bull 180.70$ (score 28, low probability), Bear 60.25$ (21). Risk/reward: From current 390$ to 117$ stop-loss with bearish target 60$ R/R 1:4+ ( (390-117)/(117-60)= 4.1 ). Bullish scenario R/R 1:0.5 low. Levels verified with volume profile, imbalances support support breaks.

Volume and Market Participation

24h volume 158.07M$, below average – price falling with low participation, smart money exit signal. OBV in downtrend, volume weight shifted to bearish candles. VWAP daily above 410$ but rejected, delta negative. Spot/futures volume ratio balanced but open interest falling, high liquidity risk. No volume confirmation: Upward moves unreliable without volume increase. This indicates weak hands cleanup and possible consolidation before accumulation, but bearish bias dominant.

Risk Assessment

Main risk: Support break with rapid drop to 100$, volatility %20+. Bitcoin correlation (0.75+), XMR amplifies on BTC downside. Positive risk: If EMA20 holds, local bounce to 131$, but momentum bearish. Risk management: For long, 117$ stop; for short, 131$ stop. Overall R/R favors bearish, portfolio %2 risk. Macro risks: BTC dominance rise crushes altcoins. Volatility indicator (ATR %5+), tighten position sizing.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC 78,394$ (+1.80%) in downtrend, supports 77,489$/74,604$/63,235$, resistances 79,396$/83,548$/86,296$. Supertrend bearish, dominance rising – XMR 0.8 correlated with BTC, XMR pulled to 100$ if BTC breaks 77k. BTC rebound (79k+) could take XMR to 420$ but downside bias strong. Watch main BTC levels: Altcoin bloodbath below 77k.

Conclusion and Strategic Outlook

XMR technical chart full of bearish confluence: Downtrend, bearish indicators, low volume, and critical support tests. Short-term EMA20 bullish but overall picture south. Strategy: Short bias, target 117-100 on 131$ resistance rejection; long only on support hold + volume increase. Risk first, watch BTC. For details XMR Spot Analysis and XMR Futures Analysis. This report provides a complete view with synthesis of 9 multi-TF levels – base your decisions on this.