ARB Technical Analysis Feb 1

ARB is trading at the $0.14 level with a %7,23 drop in the last 24 hours, and despite RSI at 22,89 being in the oversold region, the downtrend continues. This situation enables both a strong rebound and a deeper correction scenario; critical support and resistance levels will be decisive.

Current Market Situation

ARB price is consolidating around $0.14, with a 24-hour change of -%7,23 and trading volume at 252.40 million$. The price range is stuck between $0.13-$0.15, and the overall trend is downward. Technical indicators show RSI at 22.89 giving an oversold signal, but MACD maintains bearish pressure with a negative histogram. The price remains below EMA20 ($0.17$), and the Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal, with resistance at the $0.18 level. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 9 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 1 support/4 resistances on daily, 1 support/2 resistances on 3-day, 1 support/3 resistances on weekly. Critical support at $0.1256 (score: 76/100), resistances at $0.1514 (67/100), $0.2653 (65/100), and $0.1410 (64/100). This table shows the market in a fragile balance; a decrease in volume could increase volatility.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

For the bullish scenario, a clear break and close above the $0.1514 resistance is required first. The oversold condition in RSI prepares the ground for a potential bounce; breaking above the 30 level could support momentum. MACD histogram approaching the zero line and turning positive could trigger a test of EMA20 ($0.17$). If supported by a 20-30% increase in volume, a switch to a bullish Supertrend signal is expected. In MTF, breaking weekly resistances (e.g., $0.18$) signals a broader rally. This scenario could be triggered by an improvement in overall market sentiment (e.g., BTC recovery); invalidation level is a close below $0.1256.

Target Levels

First target $0.2119 (score:30), which aligns with the Fibonacci extension level and previous swing high. Then, the $0.2653 resistance can be tested, and on a breakout, movement toward the $0.30 psychological zone is possible. Risk/reward ratio (R/R) calculated from current levels is around 1:2.5; however, it should always be managed with stop-loss. These targets are educational probabilities, and volume confirmation is essential.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by a break below the $0.1256 support; this level has a score of 76/100 and is critically important. Even though RSI is oversold, MACD’s negative divergence and staying below EMAs sustain bearish momentum. If selling pressure increases despite declining volume, the Supertrend resistance at $0.18 cannot hold. In MTF analysis, the dominance of daily and weekly resistances (4R/3R) supports a downward breakout. An increase in BTC dominance or general altcoin weakness strengthens this scenario; invalidation occurs with a close above $0.1514.

Protection Levels

First protection level drops to the $0.11 region below $0.1256, then to the main target $0.0641 (score:22). This level overlaps with long-term support and 50% Fibonacci retracement. R/R ratio from current levels is around 1:1.8; in deeper drops, the $0.05 psychological base should be monitored. These levels are monitoring points for risk management.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Main triggers for both scenarios: For bullish, a volume-backed close above $0.1514 and RSI bounce to 40+; for bearish, a close below $0.1256 and new MACD low. Confirmation signals include volume increase (20+%), EMA crossovers, and MTF alignment. Daily candle closes are critical; for example, doji or hammer candles can hint at reversal, while bearish engulfing accelerates the downside. Follow: ARB Spot Analysis and ARB Futures Analysis pages.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $78,357 level with -%5,50 drop in downtrend; Supertrend gives bearish signal. Altcoins like ARB are highly correlated with BTC (%80+), a break of BTC supports at $77,796 and $75,720 creates additional selling pressure on ARB. Conversely, if BTC breaks $78,675 resistance (opening path to $80,708), it supports ARB’s bullish scenario. Be cautious with altcoins as BTC dominance rises; ARB’s independent movement is limited, BTC $64,655 critical base.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

ARB’s current balance keeps both scenarios open; traders should monitor trigger levels ($0.1514/$0.1256) and BTC movements. RSI bounce or volume explosion serves as early warning, MTF levels provide long-term perspective. Make decisions with your own analysis, prioritize risk management. Watchlist: Daily closes, volume, BTC supports $77,796/$75,720. This analysis presents probabilities for educational purposes.