GLD falls 4% after “extreme greed” sentiment busts bitcoin-like moves

Gold’s run is starting to look less like a steady trend and more like a crowding event.

The yellow metal pushed through $5,500 an ounce late Wednesday, and at that pace its notional value rose by roughly $1.6 trillion in a single day — or about the size of bitcoin’s entire market cap.

It’s a punchy comparison that comes with fine print, as gold “market cap” is an estimate based on above-ground supply, not a float-adjusted equity-style measure.

But it captures the mood: in the market’s version of a debasement trade, cash is going to the old hedge first.

Sentiment reflects that split. Gold-focused gauges are now flashing “extreme greed,” while crypto’s own fear-and-greed readings have been stuck in the opposite zone for much of the month.

JM Bullion’s Gold Fear & Greed Index is a 0–100 sentiment gauge built from five inputs: physical gold premiums, spot-price volatility, social media tone, JM Bullion retail buying/selling, and Google Trends interest. Low readings suggest fear and capitulation while high readings suggest crowded bullishness. It’s meant as a contrarian signal and not a price forecast.

Silver is adding fuel to the precious-metals narrative too, with sharp weekly gains and sharp intraday swings that feel more like a positioning squeeze than a slow accumulation story.

Bitcoin, by contrast, is still trading like a high-beta risk asset that needs clean liquidity conditions and a clear catalyst.

It hovered around the high-$80,000s, still well below October’s peak, even as metals ripped and headlines kept feeding the “hard assets” frame. That’s awkward for the macro pitch many crypto investors have leaned on — that bitcoin should act like digital gold when confidence in currencies and fiscal policy starts to wobble.

The gap doesn’t mean the thesis is dead, however. Bitcoin has outperformed most assets across longer windows and it can move fast when flows return.

But the last few weeks have been a reminder that “store of value” is as much about who is buying, and why, as it is about the narrative.

Right now the marginal buyer looking for shelter is choosing bars and coins — not tokens and wallets — and bitcoin is being made to prove, again, what it’s for.