Cardano Crashes 60% as Search Interest Hits 5-Year Low - Can ADA Recover in 2026?

Cardano traded near $0.3885 at the time of writing, reflecting a monthly decline of nearly 6% and capping a brutal year for the token. ADA lost over 60% of its value over the past 12 months, sliding from a yearly high of $1.3245 to lows near $0.3512. 

Price weakness coincided with fading investor attention, as Google Trends data shows search interest falling to its lowest level in five years. What drove such a sharp disconnect between Cardano and the broader crypto narrative?

Broader Crypto Weakness Set the Tone

Cardano’s decline tracked a wider pullback across the digital asset market during 2025. Bitcoin fell over 6% over the same period, while Ethereum dropped roughly 11%. Total crypto market cap contracted by more than 8%, tightening liquidity across altcoins. 

ADA maintained a strong correlation with sector-wide moves, which amplified downside pressure during risk-off periods. As market momentum slowed, capital rotated toward assets with stronger near-term catalysts.

Ecosystem Growth Concerns Weighed on Sentiment

Attention also shifted to Cardano’s on-chain fundamentals. Data from DefiLlama shows total value locked on the network falling below $250 million. That figure places Cardano behind newer ecosystems such as Monad and Katana, despite its longer presence in the market. 

Source: DeFiLlama

Observers also noted Cardano’s limited exposure to the real-world asset tokenization sector, which has grown to nearly $20 billion in value. As a result, narratives around ecosystem stagnation gained traction and reduced speculative interest.

Institutional Participation Remained Limited

Institutional activity offered little support during the downturn. Only Grayscale submitted an application for a spot ADA exchange-traded fund, while firms such as BlackRock, 21Shares, VanEck, and Canary avoided the asset. 

This lack of institutional engagement contrasted sharply with growing interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum products. Without fresh inflows from large asset managers, ADA struggled to regain visibility during periods of market recovery.

Liquidations Accelerated the Downtrend

Market structure weakened further after a major liquidation event on October 10, when nearly two million traders exited leveraged positions across crypto markets. Cardano felt the impact through declining derivatives activity. Futures open interest dropped from over $1.95 billion in September to about $646 million. Deleveraging reduced volatility but also limited upside participation, keeping price action subdued through the final months of the year.

Forecast Points to Potential Rebound

Despite ongoing weakness, CoinCodex projects a possible recovery into 2026. Coincodex forecasts ADA rising by about 52% to $0.5916 by April 12, 2026. Technical indicators currently show bearish sentiment, while the Fear and Greed Index sits at 27, signaling fear-driven conditions.

Source: CoinCodex

Over the last 30 days, Cardano posted 10 green days with moderate volatility near 5.5%. These metrics highlight fragile confidence rather than capitulation.

Technical Structure Shows Early Stabilization

From a chart perspective, ADA has started forming higher lows after defending a key horizontal support zone. Price now approaches descending resistance, creating a potential inflection point.

A confirmed breakout could open a path toward the $0.52–$0.55 range, while rejection may trigger another test of recent lows. As 2026 approaches, traders continue to watch whether structure or sentiment leads the next move.