Gold And Stocks Ran Ahead, But Bitcoin May Close The Gap In 2026

According to market intelligence firm Santiment, Bitcoin is trailing both gold and the S&P 500 after a sharp pullback in November. Gold has climbed 9% since early November, the S&P 500 is up 1%, and Bitcoin is down about 20%, trading near $88,000 as of Wednesday. Based on reports, that gap has left crypto quieter while other markets show modest rebounds.

Whale Accumulation Signals

Santiment’s data points to a split in behavior among holders. Small wallets were busy buying in the second half of 2025, while large wallets largely held steady and sold after pushing up to October’s all-time high.

Large holders are often treated as market movers, so their cautious posture has kept pressure on prices. Historically, a shift where big holders start buying while retail eases off has marked real trend shifts, but that condition is not fully obvious yet.

On-Chain Data Mixed

Reports note some signs of stabilization. Long-term Bitcoin holders trimmed holdings from 14.8 million coins in mid-July to 14.3 million by December, then paused further selling. Active Bitcoin addresses rose 5.51% in the last 24 hours, yet transactions fell almost 30% over the same window.

That mismatch suggests more people are watching the market, while fewer are committing funds. The raw numbers show interest, but not a clear shift back to broad trading activity.

Garrett Jin, who once ran exchange BitForex, said traders are already reallocating capital, arguing that money moves from one market to another when opportunities appear. Capital is the same and as always, it is wise to sell high and buy low, Jin wrote, according to posts on social channels.

Another analyst, CyrilXBT, described the current setup as late-cycle positioning before a possible rotation: when liquidity turns, gold could cool, Bitcoin might lead, and other tokens could follow.

Technical commentators remain split. Javon Marks has pointed to parabolic patterns in Bitcoin’s chart that echo the 2016–2017 build-up and continues to forecast a rally toward $125K.

Based on CoinCodex data, a more modest move is expected first: the platform forecasts BTC could reach $91,500 by January 30, 2026, a rise of 3.68% from current levels.

CoinCodex lists sentiment as bearish and the Fear & Greed Index at 23 (Extreme Fear). The site also notes Bitcoin had 15/30 green days and 2.11% volatility over the past 30 days, with the last update on Dec 31, 2025.

Short-term traders should focus on whether large wallets resume buying in volume, and whether transactions pick up alongside rising active addresses. If whales start accumulating again while long-term holders stop reducing positions, that combination would give a stronger signal than either metric alone.

In the meantime, reports point to stabilization rather than a confirmed reversal, leaving room for a catch-up move in 2026 if liquidity and sentiment turn.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView