Emerging Markets Bond Team Analyzes Gold’s Potential as Reserve Standard

Peter Zhang
Dec 31, 2025 11:15

VanEck’s Emerging Markets Bonds team explores the implications of gold replacing the US dollar as the reserve standard, estimating its valuation between $39k and $184k per ounce.

In a recent analysis by VanEck’s Emerging Markets Bonds team, the potential of gold replacing the US dollar as the global reserve standard was examined. The report suggests that if central bank money liabilities were matched to gold reserves, the precious metal could be valued between $39,000 and $184,000 per ounce, according to VanEck.

Gold’s Valuation and Economic Implications

The valuation of gold at such high levels underscores its potential as a stable financial asset amidst economic uncertainties. The study by VanEck considers the global monetary supply and central bank gold purchases as key indicators for this valuation model. The SGLDWDUQ Index, which measures global gold demand based on central bank net purchases, and the Global M2 CIX Index, which assesses the global M2 money supply, were utilized to support their findings.

Potential Impact on Global Financial Systems

Should gold become the reserve currency, it would represent a significant shift in the global financial landscape. Such a change could affect international trade dynamics, monetary policies, and economic stability worldwide. The transition to a gold standard could also influence foreign exchange markets and the valuation of global currencies.

Risks and Considerations

While the idea of gold as a reserve currency presents intriguing possibilities, it is not without risks. Gold investments are subject to market fluctuations and geopolitical influences, which can significantly affect their value. Moreover, investments in gold-related securities involve exposure to various risks, including those related to emerging markets, currency fluctuations, and political instability.

Broader Market Implications

The potential revaluation of gold could have widespread effects on financial markets, impacting commodities, currencies, and investment strategies. Investors and policymakers would need to consider these dynamics when planning for economic growth and stability. As with any investment, the possibility of loss remains, and diversification strategies may not fully mitigate these risks.

VanEck’s analysis highlights the importance of considering alternative financial standards in a rapidly evolving global economy. While the future of gold as a reserve currency remains speculative, the discussion prompts further exploration into the role of precious metals in financial systems.

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