- Is good news bad news?
- Just one rate cut?
According to the latest data provided by the Department of Labor, initial jobless claims fell to 199,000.
This is a rather notable drop, given that analysts had predicted the figure would stay above 200,000.
This shows that the economy is likely more robust than it is generally believed.
That said, analysts often caution that data around the end of December can be “noisy” due to seasonal hiring and other factors.
Is good news bad news?
Classically, a drop in jobless claims to 199,000 is a sign of a robust economy.
For risk assets of the likes of Bitcoin, however, this could be a problem.
If the labor market is too strong, the Federal Reserve has less pressure to cut interest rates aggressively in early 2026 to save the economy.
The strong labor data is likely dampening the speculative frenzy.
The Federal Reserve has two main goals: to fight inflation and keep people employed.
Investors were betting on the Fed cutting interest rates soon. However, the most recent data kills that hope. The Fed cannot justify cutting rates if the labor market remains in such a strong shape.
Just one rate cut?
The Fed’s median projection from December shows they believe the “heavy lifting” is done. They view the current rate as nearly neutral and plan to hold it steady to ensure inflation doesn’t reignite
That said, traders are more pessimistic about the economy than the Fed. Major players of the likes of Goldman Sachs expect the labor market to soften faster than the Fed anticipates.
A major variable for 2026 is the expiration of Chair Jerome Powell’s term in May. His replacement is expected to be way more dovish, which could bode well for risk assets.
Source: https://u.today/bitcoin-approaches-90k-as-jobless-claims-deliver-surprise
