Metaplanet Boosts Bitcoin Income Forecast as BTC Flashes Rare Oversold Signal

Metaplanet raised its Bitcoin income outlook after reporting a sharp Q4 revenue jump from its derivatives based strategy. Meanwhile, Bitcoin neared a rare oversold signal as its price lagged a rising global liquidity trend.

Metaplanet lifts Bitcoin income outlook after Q4 revenue surge

Metaplanet Inc. said it expects a sharp jump in revenue from its Bitcoin income generation business in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, citing stronger results than previously forecast.

In a notice dated Dec. 30, the company said it anticipates operating revenue of about 4.24 billion yen for the three months ending Dec. 31, 2025. The figure reflects income generated through Bitcoin derivatives, which Metaplanet uses to produce recurring revenue while continuing to accumulate Bitcoin over the medium to long term.

For the full fiscal year, Metaplanet now expects revenue from the Bitcoin income business to reach 8.58 billion yen. That total significantly exceeds its earlier forecast of 6.3 billion yen. The company said revenue growth accelerated throughout the year, with quarterly revenue expanding more than sixfold compared with the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024.

Metaplanet also reported that the compounded quarterly growth rate from the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 through the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 is expected to be about 57.4%, underscoring the rapid scaling of the business during the period.

According to the disclosure, Bitcoin held within the income generation portfolio is classified as a current asset under Japanese GAAP. Revenue from the segment reflects option premiums received, realized gains and losses, and valuation changes at period end. The company noted that the figures do not include unrealized gains or losses on Bitcoin designated as long term holdings.

Quarterly data showed steady acceleration. Revenue rose from about 692 million yen in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 to 770 million yen in the first quarter of fiscal 2025. It then increased to 1.13 billion yen in the second quarter, jumped to 2.44 billion yen in the third quarter, and reached roughly 4.24 billion yen in the fourth quarter, marking a 74% increase quarter over quarter.

Bitcoin nears rare oversold signal as global liquidity diverges

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is flashing an oversold signal that has appeared only a handful of times across its trading history, according to crypto analyst Quinten François, who shared the observation alongside a long term global liquidity chart.

Bitcoin Global Liquidity Model. Source: Binance, Quinten François on X

The chart compares Bitcoin’s price with a global liquidity model and shows the asset pressing toward the lower deviation bands, an area historically associated with stretched downside conditions. François said the signal has triggered only six times before, making the current setup statistically uncommon in Bitcoin’s multi cycle record.

The model highlights a strong historical relationship between Bitcoin and global liquidity, with the liquidity trend explaining most of Bitcoin’s long term price movement. While Bitcoin’s price has recently lagged the liquidity curve, the gap has widened toward levels seen during prior periods of market stress.

Previous instances where Bitcoin reached similar oversold conditions coincided with macro driven drawdowns, including liquidity contractions and risk off phases. In each case, price deviated sharply below the liquidity trend before eventually reverting closer to it as conditions stabilized.

The latest reading shows Bitcoin trading near the lower bound of the model’s historical range, while global liquidity continues to trend higher into late 2025. François noted that the signal does not appear often and reflects extreme positioning rather than short term price noise.

The chart spans data from 2015 through projections into 2026, placing the current setup alongside major turning points from earlier cycles. While the model does not predict timing, it frames the current price level as one of the more compressed relative to liquidity seen across Bitcoin’s history.