Share
Share this article
Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail
Markets
Share
Share this article
Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail
Traders split over whether Lighter’s LIT cle
Markets
Share
Share this article
Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail
Traders split over whether Lighter’s LIT cle
Traders split over whether Lighter’s LIT clears $3 billion FDV after launch
Traders split over whether Lighter’s LIT clears $3 billion FDV after launch
Prediction markets show traders clustering around a $2 billion–$3 billion range, with odds for $4 billion and $6 billion outcomes falling steadily after October's crash.
By Sam Reynolds|Edited by Jamie Crawley
Dec 30, 2025, 9:51 a.m.
Lighter’s LIT token has not yet begun open trading, but the market has already drawn a sharp line around its valuation after Tuesday's airdrop. (Rudy and Peter Skitterians/Pixabay, modified by CoinDesk)
What to know:
- Lighter's LIT token has not yet begun open trading, but its premarket valuation is already sparking debate, with estimates ranging from $2 billion to over $3 billion.
- The fully diluted valuation (FDV) of LIT is a contentious topic, as it reflects potential market value based on maximum token supply, which can be misleading without considering liquidity.
- Premarket trading suggests a valuation above $3 billion, but prediction markets show uncertainty, with traders on Polymarket giving even odds for LIT exceeding this figure.
Lighter’s LIT token has not yet begun open trading, but the market has already drawn a sharp line around its valuation after Tuesday's airdrop.
Traders are split on whether the new governance token of the Ethereum-based Layer 2 decentralized exchange (DEX) deserves a fully diluted valuation closer to $2 billion or $3 billion.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
Sign me up
Fully diluted valuation, or FDV, estimates a token’s total market value by multiplying its price by the maximum possible supply if all tokens were issued and circulating.
Premarket trading has placed LIT near $3.20, implying an FDV above $3 billion, according to CoinMarketCap, while prediction markets tell a more cautious story.
Recent low-float launches like Monad, EigenLayer, and Movement inflated headline valuations into the billions even as most tokens remain locked, leaving FDV to act less as a proxy for real demand and more as a forward-looking estimate that can be easily distorted without close attention to liquidity and tokenomics.
On Polymarket, traders see roughly even odds that LIT exceeds a $3 billion fully diluted valuation a day after launch, while expectations for $4 billion and $6 billion outcomes have faded, with market data showing those higher price targets collapsing after October’s crash.
In comparison, Hyperliquid's HYPE token debuted at around a $4.2 billion FDV last November.
Dune data shows Lighter has averaged about $2.7 billion in daily perpetuals volume over the past week, placing it behind only Hyperliquid and Aster.
DEXPrediction Markets
More For You
State of the Blockchain 2025
Commissioned byInput Output Group
L1 tokens broadly underperformed in 2025 despite a backdrop of regulatory and institutional wins. Explore the key trends defining ten major blockchains below.
What to know:
2025 was defined by a stark divergence: structural progress collided with stagnant price action. Institutional milestones were reached and TVL increased across most major ecosystems, yet the majority of large-cap Layer-1 tokens finished the year with negative or flat returns.
This report analyzes the structural decoupling between network usage and token performance. We examine 10 major blockchain ecosystems, exploring protocol versus application revenues, key ecosystem narratives, mechanics driving institutional adoption, and the trends to watch as we head into 2026.
View Full Report
More For You
Metaplanet buys 4,279 bitcoin, lifts total holdings to 35,102 BTC
Metaplanet's bitcoin income generation business generated about $55 million in annual revenue for 2024.
What to know:
- Metaplanet bought 4,279 Bitcoin for about $451 million, taking total holdings to 35,102 BTC as part of its long-term treasury strategy.
- The company shares ended the year up around 8% at 405 yen.
- The company's bitcoin income generation business, which uses derivatives to earn recurring revenue, is expected to deliver about $55 million in 2025.
Read full story
Latest Crypto News
Metaplanet buys 4,279 bitcoin, lifts total holdings to 35,102 BTC
Institutions are increasingly using the bitcoin options playbook for altcoins: STS Digital
Lighter DEX launches LIT token with 25% airdrop
Silver overtakes bitcoin on volatility as year-end trading thins
BlackRock’s BUIDL hits $100M million in dividends and passes $2 billion in assets
ETH, ADA SOL slip as year-end selling lingers as bitcoin traders eye $80,000 to $100,000 range
Top Stories
ETH, ADA SOL slip as year-end selling lingers as bitcoin traders eye $80,000 to $100,000 range
BlackRock’s BUIDL hits $100M million in dividends and passes $2 billion in assets
Crypto winter looms in 2026, but Cantor sees institutional growth and onchain shifts
Silver overtakes bitcoin on volatility as year-end trading thins
As Democrats gain in odds to take U.S. House, Waters bashes SEC chair on crypto
Metaplanet buys 4,279 bitcoin, lifts total holdings to 35,102 BTC
Market Opportunity
Lighter Price(LIT)
$1.636
$1.636$1.636
USD
Lighter (LIT) Live Price Chart
Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact service@support.mexc.com for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.
You May Also Like
Trend Research has liquidated its ETH holdings and currently has only 0.165 coins remaining.
PANews reported on February 8 that, according to Arkham data, Trend Research, a subsidiary of Yilihua, has liquidated its ETH holdings, with only 0.165 ETH remaining
Share
PANews2026/02/08 11:07
Changan Launches 2026 Global Testing Season with SDA Intelligence Update and Sodium-Ion Battery Strategy
YAKESHI, China–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Changan Automobile held a release event themed “Changan SDA Intelligence Update & Global Launch of Sodium-Ion Battery Strategy” in
Share
AI Journal2026/02/08 11:45
BitMine’s $11B Ethereum Bet — Smart Move or Risky Gamble Before the Next Bull Run?
BitMine's massive $11 billion investment in Ethereum has raised eyebrows in the crypto world. As the market eagerly awaits the next bull run, this bold move has sparked debates and curiosity. Is it a clever strategy or a high-stakes risk? Explore which coins are poised for growth in this fluctuating landscape. Ethereum Poised for Growth Amid Steady Movement Source: tradingview Ethereum's price is steady, moving between approximately $4335 and $4825. The crypto giant is showing promise, with a week's growth of over four percent. This follows a half-year surge of nearly 127 percent. Although the current pace is slower, the potential for breaking above the $5040 resistance level is strong. If it breaches this point, Ethereum could aim for the next resistance at $5530. Such a move would be a noticeable increase from today's range, suggesting this crypto could continue its climb. The market indicators point to a balanced phase, meaning Ethereum might be setting the stage for further growth. Keep an eye on those key levels! Conclusion BitMine’s move has sparked debate. If ETH rises, the valuation could be substantial. However, market trends can change quickly. Timing and strategy will be key. BitMine’s decision shows confidence in ETH, but only time will tell if it pays off. The sector awaits the next market movement with interest. Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Share
Coinstats2025/09/18 00:44