Can the "American Party" founded by Musk succeed?

Written by: Chen Ming, Securities China

According to the latest news on July 6, Musk made a new statement after announcing the establishment of the "American Party". When asked whether the new party would participate in the midterm elections or the presidential election, Musk replied: "Next year." Subsequently, Musk responded that the topic of "when to participate in the election" rushed to the top of Baidu's hot search.

Earlier, when Musk launched a netizen vote, he revealed that the American Party would initially focus on 2-3 Senate seats and 8-10 House of Representatives districts, trying to become a decisive force in Congress through these key seats. This strategy is completely different from the traditional political parties' attempts to win a majority of seats.

However, some media commented that the "winner-takes-all" electoral system in the United States is not friendly to third-party parties. It is extremely difficult to establish a successful third-party party in the United States, even for someone with huge wealth and influence like Musk.

Musk responds to "running for election": next year

According to CCTV News, on July 5 local time, after announcing the establishment of the "American Party", Musk made a new statement. When asked whether the new party would participate in the midterm elections or the presidential election, he gave a timetable.

Musk announced on his social media on the 5th that the "American Party" was established. Under the post announcing the establishment, a netizen asked whether his new party would participate in the 2026 midterm elections or the 2028 presidential election. Musk replied, "Next year."

Recently, Musk and US President Trump have had disagreements over the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill. On June 30, Musk fiercely criticized the so-called "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill pushed by Trump and said that if the bill is passed, the "American Party" will be established the next day. On July 4, local time, US President Trump signed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill to make it effective. A few hours before the bill was signed into law, Musk once again posted a vote on the establishment of a new party on the social platform, asking netizens whether the "American Party" should be established to "liberate" the American people from the two-party system in which the Democratic Party and the Republican Party take turns to take power. Among the approximately 1.249 million netizens who voted, supporters accounted for 65.4% and opponents accounted for 34.6%.

On July 5, local time, American billionaire Musk posted a message on social media: "Today, the establishment of the 'American Party' gives you back your freedom." Musk made the above statement in response to a post he posted on the 4th. "The support and opposition ratio is 2:1, indicating that if you want a new party, you will have a new party." Musk wrote that the United States is "bankrupted by waste and corruption."

Some netizens speculated that the political platform of the "American Party" may include reducing debt expenditures, promoting the development of AI technology, and comprehensively relaxing regulations. Musk responded: "That's right!"

On July 4, local time, when launching a netizen vote, Musk revealed that the "American Party" will initially focus on 2 to 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 House of Representatives districts, trying to become a decisive force in Congress through these key seats. Musk's strategy is completely different from the traditional party's attempt to win a majority of seats. Musk has set his sights on becoming the "critical minority" in Congress and influencing policy making by playing a decisive role in key votes.

Musk pointed out that with the current distribution of seats in Congress extremely close, this precise strategy is enough to influence major legislation and ensure that "the will of the people is truly represented."

Can the American Party succeed?

According to US law, the establishment of a political party eligible to participate in elections requires a complex certification process to confirm its qualifications. First, a caucus or congress must be held to elect temporary officials and designate the name of the party. It is not clear whether Musk's "American Party" has started the relevant procedures.

"It is extremely difficult to establish a successful third party in the United States, even for someone with Musk's enormous wealth and influence," Newsweek recently commented. "History is not on his side."

The report analyzed that although Musk has demonstrated undoubted mobilization ability on the Internet, his posts on the X platform have repeatedly caused violent fluctuations in the financial market, and his followers are loyal, high-profile and influential, but political organization is another matter. It requires ground action, alliance cooperation, and stable alliance relations, which cannot be built by emojis or live broadcasts. In the past, some political movements that became popular on the Internet often found it difficult to convert online support into actual offline influence.

"Systemic barriers to elections — such as strict ballot qualification laws, the Electoral College, 'winner-takes-all' voting, and a blockade of the national debate stage — make it almost impossible for any new party to make real progress without dismantling decades-old political structures." The report said that even with Musk's huge resources and media influence, these barriers remain deeply rooted.

Public reports show that historically, it has been difficult for the US "third party" to achieve political success. American businessman Ross Perot won nearly 19% of the popular vote in the 1992 election, but failed to win a single electoral vote. Ralph Nader was labeled a "spoiler" in the 2000 election. Recently, the "Forward Party" founded by Chinese-American entrepreneur and former presidential candidate Andrew Yang has gained attention but has had difficulty gaining traction.

According to the Global Times, Deutsche Welle quoted Bernard Tamas, a political scientist at Valdosta State University, as saying that if a "third party" wants to succeed in the United States, the prerequisite is that there are a large number of people in the United States who are disappointed with the existing political options, and the new party must be able to respond to public dissatisfaction and thus establish a grassroots force from the bottom up. However, many emerging political parties often have vague attitudes and cannot truly respond to people's strong desire for change.

The report said that although many Americans are indeed dissatisfied with the existing political choices, a study by two American political scientists in May 2024 found that Republicans and Democrats who are dissatisfied with their own party are actually less willing to vote for a more moderate new party.

According to CNN, American political parties are governed not only by the laws and rules of the Federal Election Commission, but also by the laws and regulations of each state, including which political parties can appear on the ballot. Alan Abramowitz, a professor of political science at Emory University, said: "The system is set up to make it almost impossible for a third party to succeed."

In the United States, forming a new political party also faces unique financial obstacles. The McCain-Feingold Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, passed in 2022, sets strict limits on party donations. The current regulations are that the total amount of donations used for different party purposes cannot exceed $450,000. Lee Goodman, a lawyer and former chairman of the Federal Election Commission, said Musk needs to gather thousands of joint donors to raise enough funds for his party.

"Because of federal campaign contribution limits, even an extremely wealthy individual cannot invest in a new national political party like they would a business," Goodman told CNN. "Under the current regulatory system, it's not realistic for a wealthy founder to provide seed money to form a national party and then participate in state and federal elections."

If forming a new party proves too difficult, Musk could still wield enormous influence through his super PACs, which can accept unlimited amounts of his money. Such committees can then support independent candidates, who may also have an easier time getting on the ballot. “Whether it’s individual independent spending or through super PACs, it remains the most effective way for wealthy people to legally and meaningfully participate in national politics,” Goodman said.