Bitcoin’s price holds, but on-chain data flashes warning

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed near $67,000 on April 4 as two CryptoQuant analysts pointed to a split market structure. 

CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo_Alemán said Bitcoin daily spot volume fell from 42,026 BTC on March 17 to 35,590 BTC on April 2. That marked a 15.31% drop in spot activity over the period. At the same time, open interest fell from $23.33 billion to $21.26 billion, a smaller 8.87% decline.

He also said the estimated leverage ratio rose from 0.2207 to about 0.225. In his view, Bitcoin is becoming “less dependent on real buying and selling” and more tied to leveraged positions. The same note said funding rates stayed mostly negative, showing stronger short positioning in perpetual futures.

Carmelo_Alemán said liquidity below the market sits closer than the larger liquidity zones above. That setup, according to his note, leaves Bitcoin open to a short-term move driven by long liquidations before any stronger recovery attempt.

CryptoQuant research published this week also said Bitcoin spot demand remains in deep contraction even as institutional buying continues through ETFs and Strategy purchases. That supports the view that price action has relied more on derivatives and large buyers than on broad spot demand.

Exchange reserves fall as institutions absorb supply

In a separate note, CryptoQuant analyst GugaOnChain said Bitcoin exchange reserves dropped by 66.3K BTC over the past 30 days. The post added that OTC absorption made up 92.1% of recent flow, compared with 7.9% on regular 24-hour market volume.

GugaOnChain said that pattern points to ongoing institutional accumulation. However, the analyst also warned that on-chain scarcity is facing a “cloudy macroeconomic scenario,” with geopolitical shocks still able to force fast moves back to exchange liquidity.

According to crypto.news data, Bitcoin traded around $67,150 at press time, with a market cap near $1.34 trillion.