Gold (XAU/USD) Price Prediction: Gold Slides Below $5,000 After Historic Reversal—Can Price Rebound From $4,780 and $4,604 Support?

Following a near 30% surge from monthly lows to fresh all-time highs, gold reversed sharply, posting its largest single-day loss in decades and dragging the gold spot price below the psychologically important $5,000 level.

The abrupt move has shifted market focus away from upside momentum and toward whether gold can stabilize above key technical support levels. With volatility elevated and macroeconomic headwinds resurfacing, analysts are assessing whether the current pullback represents a temporary correction or the early stages of a deeper consolidation phase.

Historic Reversal Marks Shift in Gold Price Structure

Gold’s recent decline followed a rejection from a major confluence resistance zone, an area that had capped upside advances after the parabolic rally. Friday’s sell-off produced the widest weekly trading range on record for XAU/USD, highlighting the speed and intensity of profit-taking after an extended run.

Gold is currently in a corrective phase, with the focus on the depth of the pullback while weekly structure remains intact above $4,650–$4,850. Source: FX_Scrubbs on TradingView

From a gold price analysis perspective, the reversal suggests near-term exhaustion rather than a confirmed trend breakdown. Weekly price structure continues to show higher highs and higher lows, a sign that the broader bullish framework remains intact for now. However, the scale of the pullback has placed greater emphasis on how the price behaves near lower support levels.

Market participants are now closely watching initial support around $4,780, followed by the more technically significant $4,604 zone. A sustained move below these levels could alter the short-term gold price outlook and open the door to a deeper corrective phase.

Fed Policy Shock and Inflation Data Weigh on Gold Price Today

The sharp downturn in gold price today was amplified by renewed macroeconomic pressure. US President Donald Trump’s nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair triggered an immediate reassessment of monetary policy expectations. Warsh is widely viewed as a policy hawk, reviving concerns that interest rates may remain restrictive for longer.

Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating on the 60-minute chart, facing resistance near $5,106–$5,057 and support around $4,642–$4,573. Source: Myshare_finance1 on TradingView

At the same time, hotter-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data reinforced the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold rates steady. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline PPI rose 3% year-over-year, while core PPI climbed to 3.3%, both remaining well above the Fed’s 2% target.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that inflation would be closer to target “if not for tariffs,” while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized the need for patience, warning that inflation pressures may persist longer than markets expect.

Rising US Treasury yields and a strengthening US dollar further pressured the gold price today USD, underscoring the inverse relationship between gold and interest rates during periods of tightening financial conditions.

Gold and Interest Rates: Macro Backdrop in a Restrictive Policy Environment

The current correction highlights how sensitive the gold price movement today remains to shifts in macro expectations. While gold is often viewed as a safe-haven asset and hedge against inflation, short-term price behavior continues to reflect changes in real yields, dollar strength, and central bank policy signals.

Spot gold plunged more than 12% in a single session, briefly dropping below $4,700 and marking its largest one-day decline in nearly 40 years. Source: Freja99_Golden on TradingView

With markets pricing in fewer rate cuts for the year ahead and long-dated Treasury yields moving higher, the near-term gold macro outlook has turned more cautious. Analysts note that gold typically struggles during periods when interest rates remain elevated, even if long-term structural demand remains supportive.

This macro backdrop helps explain why gold futures price action has turned volatile despite ongoing central bank gold buying and steady physical demand.

Technical Outlook: Key Gold Price Support and Resistance Levels

From a technical standpoint, gold has broken below the $5,000 threshold, extending losses toward the $4,850 area. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have eased toward neutral territory, suggesting that bullish momentum has faded but not fully reversed.

XAU/USD is now trading around the psychologically important $5,000 level, reflecting a market pressured by heightened fear and forced liquidation. Source: Moon-ForexAcademy on TradingView

The immediate gold price support levels to watch are clustered between $4,780 and $4,604. Weekly structure remains constructive above the broader $4,650–$4,850 range. A sustained break below this zone could expose deeper downside toward $4,450–$4,600, where analysts see a potential rebuild area.

On the upside, gold price resistance levels remain firmly established near $5,000–$5,100. A recovery above this zone would be needed to relieve short-term bearish pressure and restore confidence in the broader uptrend. Beyond that, resistance is seen near $5,300 and $5,600, though analysts caution that upside scenarios depend on stabilization in macro conditions.

Gold Price Forecast: Correction or Consolidation?

In the near term, gold price prediction today remains scenario-based rather than directional. Analysts broadly agree that the key question is not trend reversal, but the depth and duration of the pullback. Holding above key support zones would favor consolidation within a larger bullish structure, while acceptance below those levels could signal a more extended correction.

Price remains in a bearish structure after failing to hold multiple support levels, with apparent “support” reflecting resting liquidity rather than sustained buying demand. Source: D1GITALTRADES on TradingView

Despite the sharp sell-off, long-term gold price forecast models remain supported by structural factors, including global gold demand, central bank reserve accumulation, and gold’s role as a hedge during periods of economic uncertainty. As such, many analysts view the current phase as a digestion period rather than a definitive trend shift.

For now, the gold price outlook for this month will depend on incoming US economic data, Fed communication, and how the price behaves around critical technical levels. Market participants are likely to remain cautious, prioritizing confirmation over anticipation as volatility persists.